Rugby
West Midlands · County constituency
About the Rugby constituency
Rugby is a county constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is John Slinger (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 39.9% to 30.8% for the Conservatives, a majority of 4,428 votes on a 65.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 30.4% and the Conservatives on 28.5%, a margin of 1.9 points.
Who lives in Rugby? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Rugby vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Rugby
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Rugby within Rugby and Nuneaton and Bedworth
Rugby crosses council boundaries: Rugby (94%), Nuneaton and Bedworth (6%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Rugby | 94% | View projection › |
| Nuneaton and Bedworth | 6% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Admirals and Cawston | Labour 44.7%vs Conservative 28.9% | May 2026 Reform 30.0%vs Conservative 23.6% | Labour→Reform +19.8pp | 41.6% |
| Benn | Labour 49.7%vs Conservative 21.9% | May 2026 Labour 40.2%vs Green 20.4% | Labour share -9.5pp | 31.8% |
| Bilton | Conservative 35.5%vs Labour 35.4% | May 2026 Lib Dem 32.1%vs Reform 27.4% | Conservative→Lib Dem +18.8pp | 52.0% |
| Bulkington | Conservative 36.7%vs Labour 30.7% | May 2026 Reform 42.5%vs Conservative 35.7% | Conservative→Reform +12.4pp | 42.8% |
| Clifton, Newton and Churchover | Labour 38.4%vs Conservative 35.4% | 2024 Conservative 44.6%vs Labour 41.4% | - | 34.0% |
| Coton and Boughton | Labour 44.0%vs Conservative 31.9% | May 2026 Reform 30.6%vs Labour 24.3% | Labour→Reform +17.9pp | 40.5% |
| Eastlands | Labour 41.2%vs Conservative 26.5% | May 2026 Lib Dem 39.3%vs Reform 25.5% | Labour→Lib Dem +29.5pp | 40.5% |
| Hillmorton | Labour 41.3%vs Conservative 31.5% | May 2026 Conservative 38.0%vs Reform 28.0% | Labour→Conservative +17.4pp | 39.9% |
| New Bilton | Labour 47.8%vs Conservative 23.8% | May 2026 Labour 34.8%vs Reform 30.2% | Labour share -13.0pp | 30.8% |
| Newbold and Brownsover | Labour 45.8%vs Conservative 25.6% | May 2026 Reform 30.3%vs Conservative 26.6% | Labour→Reform +16.9pp | 34.1% |
| Paddox | Labour 37.5%vs Conservative 28.9% | May 2026 Lib Dem 40.7%vs Reform 24.7% | Labour→Lib Dem +28.2pp | 46.2% |
| Revel and Binley Woods | Conservative 39.1%vs Labour 31.7% | May 2026 Conservative 39.1%vs Reform 35.9% | Conservative share +0.0pp | 52.9% |
| Rokeby and Overslade | Labour 35.4%vs Conservative 27.4% | May 2026 Lib Dem 44.0%vs Reform 28.3% | Labour→Lib Dem +29.7pp | 42.5% |
| Wolston and the Lawfords | Conservative 37.2%vs Labour 36.5% | May 2026 Conservative 48.6%vs Reform 25.2% | Conservative share +11.4pp | 44.0% |
| Wolvey and Shilton | Conservative 38.1%vs Labour 28.8% | May 2026 Conservative 49.2%vs Reform 32.0% | Conservative share +11.1pp | 53.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Rugby at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Rugby at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Mark Pawsey | 31.4% | 44.0% | 19.9% | 6,000 | 68.9% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Mark Pawsey | 27.9% | 49.1% | 5.7% | 10,345 | 68.4%-0.5 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Mark Pawsey | 38.3% | 54.3% | 5.6% | 8,212 | 71.1%+2.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Mark Pawsey 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 31.1% | 57.3% | 8.3% | 13,395 | 70.4%-0.7 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | John Slinger | 39.9% | 30.8% | 6.6% | 4,428 | 65.4%-5.0 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Rugby
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Rugby. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave58.6 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↑Employed62.8 / 61.4vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied67.2 / 64.9vs 61.9
- ↑Employed62.8 / 62.6vs 57.3
- ↑Leave58.6 / 57.6vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied67.2 / 64.4vs 61.9
- ↑Employed62.8 / 63.8vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied67.2 / 68.3vs 61.9
- ↑Leave58.6 / 56.3vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied67.2 / 68.2vs 61.9
- ↑Leave58.6 / 61.0vs 53.2
- ↑Employed62.8 / 60.3vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.