Bury South
North West · Borough constituency
About the Bury South constituency
Bury South is a borough constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Christian Wakeford (Labour), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 45.6% to 23.4% for the Conservatives, a majority of 9,361 votes on a 56.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 42.4% and Reform UK on 27.3%, a margin of 15.1 points.
Who lives in Bury South? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Bury South vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Bury South
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Bury South within Bury and Salford
Bury South crosses council boundaries: Bury (89%), Salford (11%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Bury | 89% | View projection › |
| Salford | 11% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Besses | Labour 47.4%vs Conservative 19.8% | May 2026 Labour 34.9%vs Reform 31.8% | Labour share -12.5pp | 40.0% |
| Holyrood | Labour 51.7%vs Conservative 17.7% | May 2026 Labour 36.8%vs Reform 27.0% | Labour share -14.9pp | 48.0% |
| Kersal & Broughton Park | Labour 36.3%vs Conservative 32.6% | May 2026 Others 33.5%vs Reform 24.1% | Labour→Others +27.4pp | 31.5% |
| Pilkington Park | Labour 40.8%vs Conservative 32.7% | May 2026 Reform 34.4%vs Labour 25.2% | Labour→Reform +18.6pp | 53.0% |
| Radcliffe East | Labour 40.9%vs Reform 21.6% | May 2026 Others 45.8%vs Reform 28.3% | Labour→Others +37.6pp | 35.0% |
| Radcliffe North & Ainsworth | Labour 35.1%vs Conservative 27.6% | May 2026 Reform 35.8%vs Others 35.7% | Labour→Reform +19.9pp | 42.0% |
| Radcliffe West | Labour 43.3%vs Reform 20.6% | May 2026 Others 37.2%vs Reform 31.2% | Labour→Others +32.6pp | 35.0% |
| Sedgley | Labour 54.6%vs Conservative 23.7% | May 2026 Labour 33.1%vs Conservative 24.5% | Labour share -21.5pp | 40.0% |
| St. Mary's | Labour 53.0%vs Conservative 18.2% | May 2026 Labour 45.6%vs Reform 24.1% | Labour share -7.4pp | - |
| Unsworth | Labour 41.5%vs Conservative 24.3% | May 2026 Reform 34.1%vs Labour 25.9% | Labour→Reform +16.5pp | 47.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Bury South at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Bury South at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Ivan Lewis | 40.4% | 33.6% | 18.2% | 3,292 | 65.6% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Ivan Lewis | 45.1% | 34.6% | 3.6% | 4,922 | 63.9%-1.7 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Ivan Lewis | 53.3% | 41.6% | 2.1% | 5,965 | 69.2%+5.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Christian Wakeford 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 41.6% | 43.5% | 6.2% | 935 | 66.5%-2.7 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Christian Wakeford | 45.6% | 23.4% | 4.3% | 9,361 | 56.0%-10.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Bury South
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bury South. Politics shown for context.
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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