Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard
East of England · County constituency · Central Bedfordshire borough
About the Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard constituency
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Alex Mayer (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 32.5% to 31.1% for the Conservatives, a majority of 667 votes on a 60.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 31.9% and the Conservatives on 21.7%, a margin of 10.2 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard within Central Bedfordshire
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard sits entirely within Central Bedfordshire Council. Central Bedfordshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Central Bedfordshire | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunstable Central | Labour 33.9%vs Conservative 32.4% | 2023 Conservative 36.4%vs Labour 34.7% | - | 27.8% |
| Dunstable East | Conservative 32.2%vs Labour 32.1% | 2023 Independent 41.8%vs Labour 25.2% | - | 25.4% |
| Dunstable North | Labour 41.0%vs Conservative 29.4% | 2023 Labour 38.4%vs Conservative 31.5% | - | 23.5% |
| Dunstable South | Labour 32.9%vs Conservative 31.4% | 2023 Conservative 30.5%vs Independent 30.3% | - | 26.6% |
| Dunstable West | Conservative 38.2%vs Labour 29.2% | 2023 Conservative 40.0%vs Independent 26.5% | - | 32.8% |
| Heath & Reach | Conservative 54.0%vs Labour 21.1% | 2023 Conservative 59.7%vs Labour 16.0% | - | 37.8% |
| Houghton Regis East | Labour 39.8%vs Conservative 24.0% | 2023 Independent 36.8%vs Labour 30.8% | - | 24.2% |
| Houghton Regis West | Labour 36.0%vs Conservative 25.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 36.0%vs Labour 25.6% | - | 22.7% |
| Leighton-Linslade North | Labour 32.3%vs Conservative 30.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 40.0%vs Labour 29.5% | - | 30.6% |
| Leighton-Linslade South | Labour 27.6%vs Conservative 26.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 60.5%vs Conservative 17.3% | - | 37.0% |
| Leighton-Linslade West | Labour 30.9%vs Conservative 29.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 38.8%vs Labour 23.7% | - | 40.6% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Andrew Selous South West Bedfordshire MP | 19.6% | 52.8% | 20.0% | 16,649 | 66.3% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Andrew Selous South West Bedfordshire MP | 20.3% | 55.0% | 5.2% | 17,813 | 64.7%-1.6 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Andrew Selous South West Bedfordshire MP | 33.8% | 59.2% | 4.7% | 14,168 | 69.8%+5.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Andrew Selous South West Bedfordshire MP, pre-review boundary | 26.8% | 58.7% | 10.8% | 15,386 | 65.2% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Alex Mayer | 32.5% | 31.1% | 14.1% | 667 | 60.0%-5.2 |
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat South West Bedfordshire (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Employed63.8 / 63.7vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied68.3 / 66.9vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent15.4 / 15.7vs 20.2
- ↑Employed63.8 / 62.8vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied68.3 / 67.2vs 61.9
- ↑Employed63.8 / 62.3vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied68.3 / 66.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent15.4 / 17.3vs 20.2
- ↑Employed63.8 / 62.6vs 57.3
- ↑Employed63.8 / 61.4vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied68.3 / 64.9vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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