Swindon North
South West · County constituency · Swindon borough
About the Swindon North constituency
Swindon North is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Will Stone (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 40.6% to 31.3% for the Conservatives, a majority of 4,103 votes on a 60.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 32.9% and Labour on 31.4%, a margin of 1.5 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Swindon North? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Swindon North vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Swindon North
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Swindon North within Swindon
Swindon North sits entirely within Swindon Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Swindon | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blunsdon and Highworth | Conservative 38.0%vs Labour 35.6% | 2024 Conservative 45.8%vs Labour 39.0% | - | 34.0% |
| Gorse Hill and Pinehurst | Labour 46.7%vs Conservative 26.0% | 2024 Labour 62.3%vs Conservative 20.0% | - | 29.0% |
| Haydon Wick | Labour 39.0%vs Conservative 32.2% | May 2026 Reform 35.0%vs Labour 29.8% | Labour→Reform +13.7pp | 44.7% |
| Penhill and Upper Stratton | Labour 42.0%vs Conservative 28.2% | 2024 Labour 49.6%vs Conservative 39.4% | - | 25.0% |
| Priory Vale | Labour 40.0%vs Conservative 30.5% | May 2026 Conservative 33.6%vs Reform 26.1% | Labour→Conservative +11.0pp | 40.4% |
| Rodbourne Cheney | Labour 45.7%vs Conservative 28.1% | May 2026 Reform 46.3%vs Labour 27.2% | Labour→Reform +24.3pp | 32.0% |
| St Andrews | Labour 37.3%vs Conservative 33.0% | 2024 Conservative 45.2%vs Labour 41.0% | - | 28.0% |
| St Margaret and South Marston | Labour 40.7%vs Conservative 32.7% | 2024 Labour 43.6%vs Conservative 42.5% | - | 30.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Swindon North at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Swindon North at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con gain from Lab | Justin Tomlinson North Swindon MP | 30.5% | 44.6% | 17.2% | 7,060 | 64.2% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Justin Tomlinson North Swindon MP | 27.8% | 50.3% | 3.3% | 11,786 | 64.5%+0.3 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Justin Tomlinson North Swindon MP | 38.4% | 53.6% | 3.6% | 8,335 | 68.5%+4.0 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Justin Tomlinson North Swindon MP, pre-review boundary | 30.5% | 58.5% | 7.9% | 13,250 | 65.7% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Will Stone | 40.6% | 31.3% | 4.7% | 4,103 | 60.3%-5.4 |
Swindon North was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat North Swindon (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Swindon North
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Swindon North. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Employed63.7 / 63.8vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied66.9 / 68.3vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent15.7 / 15.4vs 20.2
- ↑Employed63.7 / 61.4vs 57.3
- ↑Leave57.3 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.4 / 29.6vs 33.7
- ↓Graduate26.4 / 28.4vs 33.7
- ↑Employed63.7 / 62.3vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied66.9 / 66.4vs 61.9
- ↑Employed63.7 / 62.6vs 57.3
- ↑Leave57.3 / 57.6vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.4 / 31.0vs 33.7
- ↓Graduate26.4 / 28.4vs 33.7
- ↑Employed63.7 / 61.8vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied66.9 / 65.6vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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