North West Cambridgeshire
East of England · County constituency
About the North West Cambridgeshire constituency
North West Cambridgeshire is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Sam Carling (Labour), MP since July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 33.3% to 33.2% for the Conservatives, a majority of 39 votes on a 58.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 25.6% and the Conservatives on 25.2%, a margin of 0.3 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in North West Cambridgeshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did North West Cambridgeshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of North West Cambridgeshire
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
North West Cambridgeshire within Peterborough and Huntingdonshire
North West Cambridgeshire crosses council boundaries: Peterborough (75%), Huntingdonshire (25%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent ward result with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | 2026 election |
|---|---|---|
| Peterborough | 75% | 2026 result › |
| Huntingdonshire | 25% | 2026 result › |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2026 | Fletton & Woodston | Grn GAIN from Lab | Grn 41% Ref 30% Lab 13% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent result with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnack | Conservative 41.6%vs Labour 27.1% | 2024 Conservative 39.9%vs Independent 36.2% | - | 40.0% |
| Fletton and Stanground | Labour 35.1%vs Conservative 25.5% | May 2026 Lib Dem 38.9%vs Reform 37.0% | Labour→Lib Dem +25.0pp | 32.2% |
| Fletton and Woodston | Labour 44.9%vs Conservative 25.8% | May 2026 Green 37.8%vs Reform 26.8% | Labour→Green +33.8pp | 34.5% |
| Glinton and Castor | Conservative 41.5%vs Labour 27.0% | 2024 Others 39.2%vs Conservative 29.6% | - | 35.0% |
| Hampton Vale | Labour 35.5%vs Conservative 25.2% | May 2026 Lib Dem 31.5%vs Reform 26.1% | Labour→Lib Dem +24.2pp | 29.3% |
| Hargate and Hempsted | Labour 36.3%vs Conservative 30.2% | May 2026 Conservative 29.5%vs Reform 28.5% | Labour→Conservative +10.9pp | 29.3% |
| Orton Longueville | Labour 40.8%vs Conservative 27.8% | May 2026 Reform 30.4%vs Green 27.1% | Labour→Reform +21.0pp | 33.9% |
| Orton Waterville | Conservative 30.9%vs Labour 28.1% | May 2026 Green 38.0%vs Reform 28.7% | Conservative→Green +21.7pp | 42.7% |
| Ramsey | Conservative 37.4%vs Labour 28.5% | May 2026 Reform 34.5%vs Others 27.5% | Conservative→Reform +15.5pp | 39.0% |
| Stanground South | Labour 36.5%vs Conservative 35.3% | May 2026 Reform 38.3%vs Others 22.5% | Labour→Reform +23.3pp | 30.5% |
| Stilton, Folksworth & Washingley | Conservative 42.3%vs Labour 28.1% | May 2026 Conservative 53.1%vs Reform 29.3% | Conservative share +10.8pp | 48.2% |
| Wittering | Conservative 34.8%vs Labour 26.7% | 2024 Others 57.2%vs Conservative 30.4% | - | 28.0% |
| Yaxley | Conservative 37.6%vs Labour 29.2% | May 2026 Reform 38.4%vs Lib Dem 35.9% | Conservative→Reform +19.4pp | 38.3% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for North West Cambridgeshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won North West Cambridgeshire at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Shailesh Vara | 16.9% | 50.5% | 21.9% | 16,677 | 65.6% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Shailesh Vara | 17.9% | 52.5% | 5.7% | 19,795 | 67.6%+2.0 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Shailesh Vara | 30.5% | 58.6% | 5.0% | 18,008 | 68.6%+1.0 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Shailesh Vara 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 23.7% | 60.0% | 11.0% | 17,032 | 63.9%-4.7 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Sam Carling | 33.3% | 33.2% | 7.2% | 39 | 58.5%-5.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like North West Cambridgeshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to North West Cambridgeshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Employed63.6 / 62.6vs 57.3
- ↑Employed63.6 / 61.4vs 57.3
- ↑Employed63.6 / 61.4vs 57.3
- ↑Employed63.6 / 61.8vs 57.3
- ↑Employed63.6 / 63.8vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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