Gloucester
South West · Borough constituency · Gloucester borough
About the Gloucester constituency
Gloucester is a borough constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Alex McIntyre (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 36.0% to 28.5% for the Conservatives, a majority of 3,431 votes on a 57.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 29.1% and Labour on 26.4%, a margin of 2.7 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Gloucester? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Gloucester vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Gloucester
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Gloucester within Gloucester
Gloucester sits entirely within Gloucester Council. Gloucester was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Gloucester | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbeydale | Conservative 34.4%vs Labour 31.3% | 2024 Conservative 46.4%vs Labour 27.8% | - | - |
| Abbeymead | Conservative 34.4%vs Labour 28.4% | 2024 Conservative 45.4%vs Lib Dem 35.1% | - | - |
| Barnwood | Labour 30.4%vs Conservative 29.7% | 2024 Lib Dem 41.4%vs Conservative 20.9% | - | - |
| Barton and Tredworth | Labour 38.7%vs Conservative 28.7% | 2024 Conservative 33.2%vs Lib Dem 23.5% | - | - |
| Coney Hill | Labour 45.5%vs Conservative 23.5% | 2024 Labour 43.3%vs Independent 36.1% | - | - |
| Grange | Labour 32.9%vs Conservative 30.6% | 2024 Conservative 38.0%vs Labour 34.2% | - | - |
| Hucclecote | Labour 31.5%vs Conservative 25.9% | 2024 Lib Dem 67.8%vs Conservative 17.7% | - | - |
| Kingsholm and Wotton | Labour 34.5%vs Conservative 24.3% | 2024 Lib Dem 59.7%vs Labour 24.4% | - | - |
| Kingsway | Labour 40.8%vs Conservative 25.9% | 2024 Labour 52.7%vs Conservative 26.4% | - | 27.1% |
| Matson, Robinswood and White City | Labour 40.9%vs Conservative 24.5% | 2024 Independent 45.6%vs Labour 37.0% | - | - |
| Moreland | Labour 45.3%vs Conservative 25.5% | 2024 Labour 54.6%vs Conservative 27.5% | - | - |
| Podsmead | Labour 35.9%vs Conservative 26.3% | 2024 Lib Dem 45.4%vs Labour 30.6% | - | - |
| Quedgeley Fieldcourt | Labour 33.8%vs Conservative 29.9% | 2024 Conservative 43.7%vs Labour 31.3% | - | - |
| Quedgeley Severn Vale | Labour 34.9%vs Conservative 28.4% | 2024 Lib Dem 34.9%vs Conservative 29.6% | - | - |
| Tuffley | Labour 36.3%vs Conservative 32.8% | 2024 Lib Dem 36.1%vs Conservative 31.9% | - | - |
| Westgate | Labour 34.8%vs Conservative 29.5% | 2024 Lib Dem 36.0%vs Conservative 30.7% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Gloucester at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Gloucester at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Richard Graham | 35.2% | 39.9% | 19.2% | 2,420 | 64.0% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Richard Graham | 31.5% | 45.3% | 5.4% | 7,251 | 63.4%-0.6 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Richard Graham | 40.1% | 50.3% | 5.0% | 5,520 | 65.2%+1.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Richard Graham 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 35.2% | 54.6% | 7.7% | 9,880 | 66.6%+1.4 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Alex McIntyre | 36.1% | 28.5% | 10.4% | 3,431 | 57.5%-9.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Gloucester
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Gloucester. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Employed61.4 / 63.6vs 57.3
- ↓Graduate26.9 / 29.7vs 33.7
- ↑Leave58.8 / 56.9vs 53.2
- ↑Leave58.8 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↑Employed61.4 / 61.4vs 57.3
- ↓Graduate26.9 / 29.6vs 33.7
- ↑Leave58.8 / 57.6vs 53.2
- ↑Employed61.4 / 62.6vs 57.3
- ↓Graduate26.9 / 31.0vs 33.7
- ↓Graduate26.9 / 26.5vs 33.7
- ↑Leave58.8 / 63.7vs 53.2
- ↑Employed61.4 / 61.7vs 57.3
- ↓Graduate26.9 / 26.9vs 33.7
- ↑Leave58.8 / 63.7vs 53.2
- ↑Employed61.4 / 60.7vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.