Buckingham and Bletchley
South East · County constituency
About the Buckingham and Bletchley constituency
Buckingham and Bletchley is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Callum Anderson (Labour), MP since July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 37.0% to 31.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 2,421 votes on a 63.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 32.3% and Labour on 30.3%, a margin of 2.1 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Buckingham and Bletchley? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Buckingham and Bletchley vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Buckingham and Bletchley
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Buckingham and Bletchley within Milton Keynes and Buckinghamshire
Buckingham and Bletchley crosses council boundaries: Milton Keynes (57%), Buckinghamshire (43%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent ward result with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | 2026 election |
|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes | 57% | 2026 result › |
| Buckinghamshire | 43% | - |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent result with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bletchley East | Labour 44.5%vs Conservative 26.2% | 2024 Labour 55.1%vs Conservative 20.6% | - | 22.6% |
| Bletchley Park | Labour 40.9%vs Conservative 30.6% | May 2026 Reform 32.8%vs Labour 28.8%now part of Bletchley Park Fenny Stratford | Labour→Reform +14.6pp | 39.5% |
| Bletchley West | Labour 42.4%vs Conservative 31.7% | May 2026 Reform 35.0%vs Labour 28.6% | Labour→Reform +17.2pp | 40.7% |
| Buckingham East | Conservative 34.3%vs Labour 31.0% | 2025 Labour 32.4%vs Conservative 24.7%2025 ward: Buckingham, covering 100% of this ward | - | 35.7% |
| Buckingham West | Labour 40.3%vs Conservative 30.9% | 2025 Labour 32.4%vs Conservative 24.7%2025 ward: Buckingham, covering 80% of this ward | - | 35.7% |
| Great Brickhill | Conservative 35.8%vs Labour 25.6% | 2025 Conservative 35.1%vs Reform 27.6%2025 ward: Newton Longville, covering 71% of this ward | - | 33.4% |
| Tattenhoe | Labour 40.5%vs Conservative 31.3% | May 2026 Conservative 42.4%vs Labour 19.6% | Labour→Conservative +16.0pp | 43.9% |
| Winslow | Conservative 36.5%vs Labour 24.0% | 2025 Conservative 34.6%vs Reform 31.6%2025 ward: Horwood, covering 43% of this ward | - | 38.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Buckingham and Bletchley at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Buckingham and Bletchley at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Spk gain from Con | John Bercow Buckingham MP | - | - | - | 12,529 | 64.5% |
| 2015predecessor | Spk hold | John Bercow Buckingham MP | - | - | - | 22,942 | 69.3%+4.8 |
| 2017predecessor | Spk hold | John Bercow Buckingham MP | - | - | - | 25,725 | 66.2%-3.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Greg Smith Buckingham MP, pre-review boundary | 27.7% | 53.1% | 15.4% | 13,345 | 71.4% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Callum Anderson | 36.9% | 31.9% | 9.0% | 2,421 | 63.7%-7.7 |
Buckingham and Bletchley was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Buckingham (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Buckingham and Bletchley
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Buckingham and Bletchley. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Employed61.9 / 61.8vs 57.3
- ↑Employed61.9 / 63.0vs 57.3
- ↑Employed61.9 / 60.7vs 57.3
- ↑Employed61.9 / 64.2vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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