Milton Keynes North
South East · County constituency · Milton Keynes borough
About the Milton Keynes North constituency
Milton Keynes North is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Chris Curtis (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 42.0% to 30.2% for the Conservatives, a majority of 5,430 votes on a 65.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 34.2% and Reform UK on 25.0%, a margin of 9.1 points.
Who lives in Milton Keynes North? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Milton Keynes North vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Milton Keynes North
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Milton Keynes North within Milton Keynes
Milton Keynes North sits entirely within Milton Keynes Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradwell | Labour 40.5%vs Conservative 21.8% | May 2026 Lib Dem 40.9%vs Reform 25.4% | Labour→Lib Dem +27.8pp | 43.0% |
| Newport Pagnell North & Hanslope | Conservative 40.1%vs Labour 31.5% | 2024 Conservative 48.3%vs Lib Dem 23.0% | - | 34.3% |
| Newport Pagnell South | Labour 34.9%vs Conservative 30.2% | 2024 Lib Dem 46.2%vs Conservative 25.1% | - | 30.9% |
| Olney | Conservative 41.3%vs Labour 36.3% | May 2026 Conservative 41.7%vs Reform 23.6%now part of Olney Rural | Conservative share +0.4pp | 50.5% |
| Stantonbury | Labour 47.9%vs Conservative 27.0% | 2024 Labour 49.5%vs Conservative 21.1% | - | 30.1% |
| Stony Stratford | Labour 48.4%vs Conservative 28.7% | May 2026 Labour 37.8%vs Conservative 21.9% | Labour share -10.6pp | 44.8% |
| Wolverton | Labour 51.2%vs Conservative 21.8% | May 2026 Labour 38.0%vs Green 29.2% | Labour share -13.1pp | 41.7% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Milton Keynes North at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Milton Keynes North at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Mark Lancaster | 26.8% | 43.5% | 22.1% | 8,961 | 65.4% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Mark Lancaster | 30.3% | 47.2% | 6.2% | 9,753 | 66.4%+1.0 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Mark Lancaster | 44.4% | 47.5% | 3.9% | 1,975 | 71.7%+5.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Ben Everitt 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 38.5% | 51.6% | 6.7% | 6,327 | 68.4%-3.3 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Chris Curtis | 42.0% | 30.2% | 7.3% | 5,430 | 65.0%-3.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Milton Keynes North
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Milton Keynes North. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Employed61.8 / 61.9vs 57.3
- ↑Employed61.8 / 63.0vs 57.3
- ↑Employed61.8 / 60.7vs 57.3
- ↑Employed61.8 / 64.2vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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