Stretford and Urmston
North West · Borough constituency · Trafford borough
About the Stretford and Urmston constituency
Stretford and Urmston is a borough constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Andrew Western (Labour), first elected in December 2022. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 49.2% to 14.1% for the Conservatives, a majority of 16,150 votes on a 61.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 40.6% and Reform UK on 20.1%, a margin of 20.5 points.
Who lives in Stretford and Urmston? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Stretford and Urmston vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Stretford and Urmston
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Stretford and Urmston within Trafford
Stretford and Urmston sits entirely within Trafford Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Trafford | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucklow-St Martins | Labour 48.3%vs Conservative 13.9% | May 2026 Reform 43.6%vs Labour 22.0% | Labour→Reform +28.4pp | 34.7% |
| Davyhulme | Labour 47.9%vs Conservative 17.7% | May 2026 Reform 30.1%vs Labour 29.8% | Labour→Reform +18.4pp | 48.6% |
| Flixton | Labour 47.6%vs Conservative 19.5% | May 2026 Reform 29.6%vs Labour 29.1% | Labour→Reform +18.1pp | 51.6% |
| Gorse Hill & Cornbrook | Labour 50.3%vs Reform 13.9% | May 2026 Green 44.3%vs Labour 29.5% | Labour→Green +27.3pp | 35.5% |
| Longford | Labour 52.5%vs Conservative 12.1% | May 2026 Green 46.7%vs Labour 32.5% | Labour→Green +28.2pp | 44.9% |
| Lostock & Barton | Labour 47.9%vs Conservative 14.1% | May 2026 Labour 30.9%vs Reform 30.1% | Labour share -16.9pp | 42.2% |
| Old Trafford | Labour 52.2%vs Green 12.2% | May 2026 Green 52.6%vs Labour 36.1% | Labour→Green +28.3pp | 42.2% |
| Stretford & Humphrey Park | Labour 48.5%vs Reform 12.4% | May 2026 Labour 32.3%vs Green 29.6% | Labour share -16.2pp | 48.1% |
| Urmston | Labour 48.5%vs Conservative 17.5% | May 2026 Labour 36.0%vs Reform 26.2% | Labour share -12.4pp | 49.6% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Stretford and Urmston at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Stretford and Urmston at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Kate Green | 48.6% | 28.7% | 16.9% | 8,935 | 63.3% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Kate Green | 53.0% | 27.8% | 2.9% | 11,685 | 67.2%+3.9 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Kate Green | 66.8% | 27.5% | 2.0% | 19,705 | 69.9%+2.7 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Kate Green 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 60.3% | 27.5% | 5.9% | 16,417 | 68.4%-1.5 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Andrew Western | 49.2% | 14.1% | 4.8% | 16,150 | 61.2%-7.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Stretford and Urmston
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Stretford and Urmston. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Private rent15.5 / 16.5vs 20.2
- ↓Private rent15.5 / 16.8vs 20.2
- ↓Leave48.9 / 50.8vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent15.5 / 16.5vs 20.2
- ↓Leave48.9 / 51.0vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent15.5 / 15.8vs 20.2
- ↓Leave48.9 / 49.7vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.