Carshalton and Wallington
London · Borough constituency · Sutton borough
About the Carshalton and Wallington constituency
Carshalton and Wallington is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Bobby Dean (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 43.1% to 26.2% for the Conservatives, a majority of 7,905 votes on a 62.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 35.8% and Reform UK on 26.3%, a margin of 9.5 points.
Who lives in Carshalton and Wallington? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Carshalton and Wallington vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Carshalton and Wallington
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Carshalton and Wallington within Sutton
Carshalton and Wallington sits entirely within Sutton Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Sutton | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beddington | Lib Dem 38.6%vs Conservative 26.0% | May 2026 Others 31.5%vs Lib Dem 30.1% | Lib Dem→Others +20.0pp | - |
| Carshalton Central | Lib Dem 47.4%vs Conservative 25.4% | May 2026 Lib Dem 53.3%vs Reform 17.0% | Lib Dem share +5.9pp | - |
| Carshalton South & Clockhouse | Lib Dem 43.8%vs Conservative 32.7% | May 2026 Lib Dem 45.1%vs Conservative 27.8% | Lib Dem share +1.3pp | - |
| Hackbridge | Lib Dem 38.6%vs Conservative 22.2% | May 2026 Lib Dem 33.4%vs Labour 28.3% | Lib Dem share -5.2pp | - |
| South Beddington & Roundshaw | Lib Dem 41.2%vs Conservative 29.6% | May 2026 Lib Dem 47.3%vs Reform 26.2% | Lib Dem share +6.1pp | - |
| St Helier East | Lib Dem 40.6%vs Conservative 21.6% | May 2026 Lib Dem 41.5%vs Reform 29.9% | Lib Dem share +0.9pp | - |
| St Helier West | Lib Dem 38.6%vs Conservative 26.1% | May 2026 Reform 31.0%vs Lib Dem 30.5% | Lib Dem→Reform +12.3pp | - |
| The Wrythe | Lib Dem 44.2%vs Conservative 26.9% | May 2026 Lib Dem 44.4%vs Reform 25.4% | Lib Dem share +0.2pp | - |
| Wallington North | Lib Dem 45.1%vs Conservative 23.6% | May 2026 Lib Dem 48.0%vs Reform 23.0% | Lib Dem share +2.9pp | - |
| Wallington South | Lib Dem 47.8%vs Conservative 23.9% | May 2026 Lib Dem 50.0%vs Reform 18.1% | Lib Dem share +2.2pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Carshalton and Wallington at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Carshalton and Wallington at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | LD hold | Tom Brake | 8.7% | 36.8% | 48.3% | 5,260 | 69.0% |
| 2015 | LD hold | Tom Brake | 15.0% | 31.7% | 34.9% | 1,510 | 68.0%-1.0 |
| 2017 | LD hold | Tom Brake | 18.4% | 38.3% | 41.0% | 1,369 | 71.6%+3.6 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Elliot Colburn 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 12.4% | 42.4% | 41.1% | 629 | 67.5%-4.1 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Bobby Dean | 13.1% | 26.2% | 43.1% | 7,905 | 62.8%-4.7 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Carshalton and Wallington
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Carshalton and Wallington. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Age 65+17.8 / 19.1vs 22.7
- ↑Employed62.6 / 60.4vs 57.3
- ↓Private rent15.8 / 15.5vs 20.2
- ↓Age 65+17.8 / 19.8vs 22.7
- ↑Employed62.6 / 64.2vs 57.3
- ↓Private rent15.8 / 16.5vs 20.2
- ↓Age 65+17.8 / 19.4vs 22.7
- ↓Age 65+17.8 / 16.8vs 22.7
- ↑Employed62.6 / 65.3vs 57.3
- ↓Private rent15.8 / 16.4vs 20.2
- ↓Age 65+17.8 / 19.1vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.