Dartford
South East · County constituency · Dartford borough
About the Dartford constituency
Dartford is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Jim Dickson (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 34.6% to 31.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 1,192 votes on a 59.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 33.4% and the Conservatives on 28.3%, a margin of 5.1 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Dartford? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Dartford vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Dartford
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Dartford within Dartford
Dartford sits entirely within Dartford Council. Dartford was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Dartford | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jul 2025 | Maypole & Leyton Cross | Ref GAIN from Con | Ref 54% Con 28% Lab 13% |
| 17 Jul 2025 | Stone House | Ref GAIN from Con | Ref 45% Lab 28% Con 18% |
| 23 Nov 2024 | Greenhithe & Knockhall | Ref GAIN from Other | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bean & Village Park | Conservative 36.0%vs Reform 26.5% | 2023 Conservative 74.5%vs Labour 25.5% | - | 27.2% |
| Brent | Conservative 37.9%vs Labour 31.8% | 2023 Conservative 63.2%vs Labour 29.0% | - | 31.9% |
| Bridge | Conservative 31.7%vs Labour 31.4% | 2023 Conservative 61.5%vs Labour 38.5% | - | 19.9% |
| Burnham | Labour 35.9%vs Conservative 28.5% | 2023 Conservative 56.1%vs Labour 43.9% | - | 28.8% |
| Darenth | Labour 33.0%vs Conservative 30.8% | 2023 Conservative 35.8%vs Labour 34.5% | - | 30.0% |
| Ebbsfleet | Labour 34.7%vs Conservative 26.6% | 2023 Labour 51.8%vs Conservative 48.2% | - | 28.4% |
| Greenhithe & Knockhall | Labour 30.1%vs Conservative 29.9% | 2023 Others 40.8%vs Conservative 37.4% | - | 25.9% |
| Heath | Conservative 42.4%vs Labour 29.7% | 2023 Conservative 68.9%vs Labour 25.6% | - | 33.1% |
| Joyden's Wood | Conservative 42.4%vs Labour 24.0% | 2023 Conservative 81.5%vs Labour 18.5% | - | 33.8% |
| Longfield, New Barn & Southfleet | Conservative 41.5%vs Labour 26.5% | 2023 Conservative 75.5%vs Labour 19.8% | - | 37.8% |
| Maypole & Leyton Cross | Conservative 32.3%vs Labour 28.2% | 2023 Conservative 68.7%vs Labour 31.3% | - | 29.1% |
| Newtown | Labour 44.2%vs Conservative 26.9% | 2023 Labour 36.4%vs Green 33.6% | - | 35.2% |
| Princes | Labour 43.1%vs Conservative 28.6% | 2023 Labour 48.0%vs Conservative 42.0% | - | 24.3% |
| Stone Castle | Labour 34.2%vs Conservative 28.4% | 2023 Conservative 59.2%vs Labour 40.8% | - | 16.3% |
| Stone House | Labour 39.4%vs Conservative 28.2% | 2023 Conservative 50.6%vs Labour 44.1% | - | 28.9% |
| Swanscombe | Labour 40.6%vs Reform 24.1% | 2023 Labour 56.3%vs Conservative 23.5% | - | 33.1% |
| Temple Hill | Labour 42.6%vs Conservative 24.8% | 2023 Labour 64.4%vs Conservative 30.0% | - | 21.2% |
| Town | Labour 34.0%vs Conservative 32.9% | 2023 Conservative 64.1%vs Labour 35.9% | - | 23.3% |
| West Hill | Labour 38.6%vs Conservative 31.5% | 2023 Conservative 58.9%vs Labour 34.1% | - | 33.9% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Dartford at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Dartford at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Gareth Johnson | 27.6% | 48.8% | 14.7% | 10,628 | 65.7% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Gareth Johnson | 25.4% | 49.0% | 2.8% | 12,345 | 69.7%+4.0 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Gareth Johnson | 33.2% | 57.6% | 2.6% | 13,186 | 69.1%-0.6 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Gareth Johnson 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 29.5% | 61.1% | 7.0% | 14,704 | 64.5%-4.6 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Jim Dickson | 34.6% | 31.9% | 4.9% | 1,192 | 59.0%-5.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Dartford
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Dartford. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave64.0 / 69.3vs 53.2
- ↑Employed65.3 / 60.6vs 57.3
- ↓Age 65+16.8 / 20.5vs 22.7
- ↑Leave64.0 / 65.3vs 53.2
- ↑Employed65.3 / 60.4vs 57.3
- ↑Employed65.3 / 64.4vs 57.3
- ↑Leave64.0 / 59.0vs 53.2
- ↓Age 65+16.8 / 18.8vs 22.7
- ↑Leave64.0 / 65.4vs 53.2
- ↓Age 65+16.8 / 17.8vs 22.7
- ↑Employed65.3 / 62.6vs 57.3
- ↑Leave64.0 / 56.3vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.