Bexleyheath and Crayford
London · Borough constituency · Bexley borough
About the Bexleyheath and Crayford constituency
Bexleyheath and Crayford is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Daniel Francis (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 36.2% to 31.3% for the Conservatives, a majority of 2,114 votes on a 61.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 34.0% and the Conservatives on 33.0%, a margin of 1.1 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Bexleyheath and Crayford? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Bexleyheath and Crayford vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Bexleyheath and Crayford
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Bexleyheath and Crayford within Bexley
Bexleyheath and Crayford sits entirely within Bexley Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Bexley | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnehurst | Labour 34.5%vs Conservative 32.3% | May 2026 Conservative 39.8%vs Reform 33.9% | Labour→Conservative +12.2pp | - |
| Bexleyheath | Conservative 36.3%vs Labour 33.8% | May 2026 Conservative 40.2%vs Reform 32.6% | Conservative share +4.0pp | - |
| Crayford | Labour 36.8%vs Conservative 29.9% | May 2026 Reform 37.0%vs Conservative 32.6% | Labour→Reform +14.5pp | - |
| Crook Log | Labour 34.3%vs Conservative 31.2% | May 2026 Conservative 39.1%vs Reform 32.6% | Labour→Conservative +12.5pp | - |
| Northumberland Heath | Labour 39.4%vs Conservative 27.4% | May 2026 Reform 38.5%vs Labour 29.5% | Labour→Reform +12.0pp | - |
| Slade Green & Northend | Labour 43.2%vs Conservative 23.2% | May 2026 Labour 36.3%vs Reform 34.1% | Labour share -6.9pp | - |
| West Heath | Labour 34.6%vs Conservative 34.5% | May 2026 Conservative 38.1%vs Reform 35.2% | Labour→Conservative +9.2pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Bexleyheath and Crayford at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Bexleyheath and Crayford at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | David Evennett | 26.5% | 50.5% | 12.7% | 10,344 | 66.4% |
| 2015 | Con hold | David Evennett | 26.2% | 47.3% | 3.0% | 9,192 | 67.4%+1.0 |
| 2017 | Con hold | David Evennett | 35.5% | 55.6% | 2.7% | 9,073 | 69.2%+1.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | David Evennett 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 29.0% | 60.8% | 6.0% | 15,038 | 67.6%-1.6 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Daniel Francis | 36.2% | 31.3% | 5.1% | 2,114 | 61.8%-5.8 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Bexleyheath and Crayford
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bexleyheath and Crayford. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave65.3 / 69.5vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.2 / 70.5vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.5 / 13.1vs 20.2
- ↑Leave65.3 / 69.3vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.2 / 67.9vs 61.9
- ↑Leave65.3 / 62.4vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.2 / 76.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.5 / 13.6vs 20.2
- ↑Leave65.3 / 64.0vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.2 / 64.8vs 61.9
- ↑Leave65.3 / 65.5vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.2 / 68.8vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.5 / 16.0vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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