Old Bexley and Sidcup
London · Borough constituency · Bexley borough
About the Old Bexley and Sidcup constituency
Old Bexley and Sidcup is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Mr Louie French (Conservative), first elected in December 2021. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 37.6% to 30.1% for Labour, a majority of 3,548 votes on a 65.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 38.7% and Reform UK on 33.8%, a margin of 5.0 points.
Who lives in Old Bexley and Sidcup? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Old Bexley and Sidcup vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Old Bexley and Sidcup
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Old Bexley and Sidcup within Bexley
Old Bexley and Sidcup sits entirely within Bexley Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Bexley | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackfen & Lamorbey | Conservative 40.2%vs Labour 29.5% | May 2026 Conservative 39.4%vs Reform 36.8% | Conservative share -0.8pp | - |
| Blendon & Penhill | Conservative 42.0%vs Labour 29.4% | May 2026 Conservative 45.3%vs Reform 35.1% | Conservative share +3.3pp | - |
| East Wickham | Labour 30.5%vs Conservative 30.0% | May 2026 Conservative 41.4%vs Reform 32.9% | Labour→Conservative +11.8pp | - |
| Falconwood & Welling | Conservative 40.1%vs Labour 33.6% | May 2026 Conservative 39.0%vs Reform 33.7% | Conservative share -1.1pp | - |
| Longlands | Conservative 36.4%vs Labour 28.9% | May 2026 Conservative 47.1%vs Reform 25.9% | Conservative share +10.6pp | - |
| Sidcup | Conservative 36.1%vs Labour 29.9% | May 2026 Conservative 42.5%vs Reform 25.7% | Conservative share +6.5pp | - |
| St Mary's & St James | Conservative 38.1%vs Labour 28.3% | May 2026 Conservative 56.2%vs Reform 21.9% | Conservative share +18.0pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Old Bexley and Sidcup at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Old Bexley and Sidcup at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | James Brokenshire | 19.3% | 54.1% | 15.4% | 15,857 | 69.2% |
| 2015 | Con hold | James Brokenshire | 19.0% | 52.8% | 3.5% | 15,803 | 70.8%+1.6 |
| 2017 | Con hold | James Brokenshire | 29.3% | 61.5% | 3.3% | 15,466 | 72.8%+2.0 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | James Brokenshire 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 23.9% | 63.9% | 8.3% | 20,769 | 69.8%-3.0 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Louie French | 30.2% | 37.6% | 4.0% | 3,548 | 65.1%-4.7 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Old Bexley and Sidcup
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Old Bexley and Sidcup. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied76.4 / 78.9vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent8.9 / 7.3vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent13.6 / 13.0vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied76.4 / 73.3vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.6 / 11.3vs 20.2
- ↑Leave62.4 / 57.5vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied76.4 / 71.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.6 / 15.2vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent8.9 / 12.9vs 16.8
- ↑Leave62.4 / 60.3vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied76.4 / 68.1vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent8.9 / 12.7vs 16.8
- ↑Leave62.4 / 61.0vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied76.4 / 68.2vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.6 / 15.5vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.