Bolton West
North West · County constituency · Bolton borough
About the Bolton West constituency
Bolton West is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Phil Brickell (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 38.9% to 27.8% for the Conservatives, a majority of 4,945 votes on a 59.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 31.5% and Reform UK on 28.8%, a margin of 2.7 points.
Who lives in Bolton West? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Bolton West vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Bolton West
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Bolton West within Bolton
Bolton West sits entirely within Bolton Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 100% | View projection › |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | Rumworth | Ind GAIN from Lab | Other 44% Lab 31% Grn 15% |
| 2 Jul 2026 | Horwich North | Local HOLD | Other 50% Ref 23% Lab 14% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heaton, Lostock & Chew Moor | Conservative 37.8%vs Labour 33.1% | May 2026 Conservative 37.6%vs Reform 24.5% | Conservative share -0.1pp | - |
| Horwich North | Labour 48.2%vs Conservative 23.9% | May 2026 Others 44.5%vs Reform 25.6% | Labour→Others +40.8pp | - |
| Horwich South & Blackrod | Labour 44.2%vs Conservative 27.8% | May 2026 Others 45.5%vs Reform 26.4% | Labour→Others +40.1pp | - |
| Hulton | Labour 37.8%vs Conservative 27.9% | May 2026 Reform 43.1%vs Labour 21.8% | Labour→Reform +17.9pp | - |
| Rumworth | Labour 48.1%vs Reform 18.3% | May 2026 Green 49.7%vs Labour 35.1% | Labour→Green +27.9pp | - |
| Smithills | Labour 38.2%vs Reform 24.0% | May 2026 Lib Dem 37.6%vs Reform 34.3% | Labour→Lib Dem +28.2pp | - |
| Westhoughton North & Hunger Hill | Labour 36.8%vs Conservative 31.9% | May 2026 Reform 38.2%vs Lib Dem 23.0% | Labour→Reform +24.6pp | - |
| Westhoughton South | Labour 35.9%vs Reform 23.8% | May 2026 Reform 37.5%vs Lib Dem 35.3% | Labour→Reform +19.6pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Bolton West at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Bolton West at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Julie Hilling | 38.5% | 38.3% | 17.2% | 92 | 66.7% |
| 2015 | Con gain from Lab | Chris Green | 39.0% | 40.6% | 4.0% | 801 | 66.8%+0.1 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Chris Green | 46.1% | 47.9% | 2.9% | 936 | 70.1%+3.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Chris Green 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 35.2% | 56.5% | 5.6% | 10,619 | 69.1%-1.0 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Phil Brickell | 38.9% | 27.8% | 4.4% | 4,945 | 59.5%-9.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Bolton West
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bolton West. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied71.4 / 67.5vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent15.2 / 17.2vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.4 / 69.4vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied71.4 / 68.2vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent15.2 / 15.5vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.4 / 68.1vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent15.2 / 17.9vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.4 / 68.9vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent15.2 / 12.9vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.