Meriden and Solihull East
West Midlands · County constituency · Solihull borough
About the Meriden and Solihull East constituency
Meriden and Solihull East is a county constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Saqib Bhatti (Conservative), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 38.1% to 27.7% for Labour, a majority of 4,584 votes on a 59.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 38.1% and Reform UK on 31.3%, a margin of 6.8 points.
Who lives in Meriden and Solihull East? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Meriden and Solihull East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Meriden and Solihull East
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Meriden and Solihull East within Solihull
Meriden and Solihull East sits entirely within Solihull Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Solihull | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bickenhill | Conservative 37.8%vs Labour 31.5% | 2024 Conservative 60.9%vs Labour 23.2% | - | - |
| Chelmsley Wood | Labour 30.3%vs Conservative 25.8% | May 2026 Reform 53.2%vs Green 32.0% | Labour→Reform +26.5pp | - |
| Dorridge and Hockley Heath | Conservative 45.2%vs Labour 24.9% | May 2026 Conservative 54.6%vs Reform 18.6% | Conservative share +9.4pp | - |
| Elmdon | Conservative 33.9%vs Labour 25.2% | May 2026 Reform 35.5%vs Lib Dem 34.1% | Conservative→Reform +16.0pp | - |
| Kingshurst and Fordbridge | Labour 33.5%vs Conservative 28.0% | 2024 Labour 40.6%vs Conservative 39.7% | - | - |
| Knowle | Conservative 44.9%vs Labour 25.1% | May 2026 Conservative 58.8%vs Reform 20.6% | Conservative share +13.9pp | - |
| Meriden | Conservative 43.2%vs Labour 24.4% | May 2026 Conservative 38.1%vs Reform 37.8%now part of Meriden Arden | Conservative share -5.1pp | - |
| Silhill | Conservative 38.8%vs Labour 29.0% | May 2026 Conservative 42.2%vs Reform 25.2% | Conservative share +3.4pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Meriden and Solihull East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Meriden and Solihull East at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Caroline Spelman Meriden MP | 20.5% | 51.7% | 17.8% | 16,253 | 63.4% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Caroline Spelman Meriden MP | 19.0% | 54.7% | 5.0% | 18,795 | 64.2%+0.8 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Caroline Spelman Meriden MP | 26.9% | 62.0% | 4.9% | 19,198 | 67.1%+2.9 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Saqib Bhatti Meriden MP, pre-review boundary | 20.8% | 62.4% | 13.6% | 20,270 | 64.8% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Saqib Bhatti | 27.7% | 38.1% | 7.6% | 4,584 | 59.8%-5.0 |
Meriden and Solihull East was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Meriden (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Meriden and Solihull East
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Meriden and Solihull East. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied68.9 / 67.5vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 16.8vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied68.9 / 69.9vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 13.6vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied68.9 / 72.1vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 15.1vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied68.9 / 71.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 15.2vs 20.2
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 12.3vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied68.9 / 69.9vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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