Newport West and Islwyn
Wales · County constituency
About the Newport West and Islwyn constituency
Newport West and Islwyn is a county constituency in Wales. The sitting MP is Ruth Jones (Labour), first elected in April 2019. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 41.5% to 20.4% for Reform UK, a majority of 8,868 votes on a 55.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 25.7% and Reform UK on 25.4%, a margin of 0.3 points.
Who lives in Newport West and Islwyn? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Newport West and Islwyn vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Newport West and Islwyn
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Newport West and Islwyn voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Newport West and Islwyn sits almost entirely within the Senedd constituency of Casnewydd Islwyn. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Newport West and Islwyn | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casnewydd Islwyn | 97% | Reform UK 32.9% | Plaid Cymru 29.7% | 2 Reform UK, 2 Plaid Cymru, 1 Labour, 1 Conservative |
| Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni | 2% | Plaid Cymru 42.0% | Reform UK 34.3% | 3 Plaid Cymru, 3 Reform UK |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Newport West and Islwyn within Caerphilly and Newport
Newport West and Islwyn crosses council boundaries: Caerphilly (52%), Newport (48%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Caerphilly | 52% |
| Newport | 48% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sep 2023 | Penmaen | Lab HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abercarn | Labour 41.6%vs Reform 20.5% | 2022 Labour 61.0%vs Plaid Cymru 39.0% | - | - |
| Allt-yr-yn | Labour 45.0%vs Conservative 22.0% | 2022 Conservative 44.1%vs Labour 42.1% | - | 43.0% |
| Argoed | Labour 41.6%vs Reform 20.4% | 2022 Labour 61.3%vs Independent 20.8% | - | - |
| Blackwood | Labour 35.8%vs Reform 21.4% | 2022 Independent 81.0%vs Labour 19.0% | - | - |
| Cefn Fforest and Pengam | Labour 38.7%vs Reform 23.7% | 2022 Labour 58.1%vs Independent 36.7% | - | - |
| Crosskeys | Labour 42.9%vs Reform 20.1% | 2022 Labour 51.5%vs Plaid Cymru 41.4% | - | - |
| Crumlin | Labour 43.7%vs Reform 16.7% | 2022 Labour 55.1%vs Plaid Cymru 38.0% | - | - |
| Gaer | Labour 41.5%vs Reform 22.3% | 2022 Labour 61.2%vs Conservative 34.4% | - | 31.0% |
| Graig | Labour 38.4%vs Reform 20.4% | 2022 Labour 43.3%vs Conservative 43.0% | - | 40.0% |
| Newbridge | Labour 41.2%vs Reform 20.9% | 2022 Labour 53.2%vs Plaid Cymru 37.8% | - | - |
| Penmaen | Labour 42.9%vs Reform 19.2% | 2022 Labour 63.8%vs Plaid Cymru 36.2% | - | - |
| Risca East | Labour 39.7%vs Reform 22.8% | 2022 Labour 63.9%vs Plaid Cymru 36.1% | - | - |
| Risca West | Labour 38.2%vs Reform 21.5% | 2022 Independent 71.4%vs Labour 28.6% | - | - |
| Rogerstone East | Labour 44.8%vs Reform 20.8% | 2022 Labour 62.6%vs Conservative 30.3% | - | 34.0% |
| Rogerstone North | Labour 37.6%vs Conservative 23.1% | 2022 Conservative 54.9%vs Labour 45.1% | - | 51.0% |
| Rogerstone West | Labour 45.9%vs Reform 20.3% | 2022 Labour 61.7%vs Conservative 32.0% | - | 32.0% |
| Tredegar Park and Marshfield | Labour 40.4%vs Reform 20.1% | 2022 Labour 48.3%vs Conservative 40.3% | - | 28.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Newport West and Islwyn at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Newport West and Islwyn at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | Chris Evans Islwyn MP | 49.2% | 14.0% | 10.4% | 12,215 | 63.2% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab hold | Chris Evans Islwyn MP | 49.0% | 15.2% | 2.7% | 10,404 | 63.6%+0.4 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | Chris Evans Islwyn MP | 58.8% | 27.2% | 1.9% | 11,412 | 64.2%+0.6 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Chris Evans Islwyn MP, pre-review boundary | 41.8% | 37.7% | 5.1% | 2,001 | 63.7% |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Ruth Jones | 41.5% | 16.0% | 5.0% | 8,868 | 55.4%-8.3 |
Newport West and Islwyn was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Islwyn (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Newport West and Islwyn
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Newport West and Islwyn. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied69.9 / 69.8vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.3 / 12.8vs 20.2
- ↓Private rent12.3 / 11.9vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.9 / 67.4vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied69.9 / 71.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.3 / 13.7vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.9 / 70.7vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.3 / 13.8vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.9 / 69.0vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.3 / 13.5vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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