Alyn and Deeside
Wales · County constituency · Flintshire borough
About the Alyn and Deeside constituency
Alyn and Deeside is a county constituency in Wales. The sitting MP is Sir Mark Tami (Labour), first elected in June 2001. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 42.4% to 22.1% for Reform UK, a majority of 8,794 votes on a 57.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 29.5% and Labour on 23.5%, a margin of 6.1 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Alyn and Deeside? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Alyn and Deeside vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Alyn and Deeside
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Alyn and Deeside voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Alyn and Deeside sits almost entirely within the Senedd constituency of Fflint Wrecsam. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Alyn and Deeside | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fflint Wrecsam | 98% | Reform UK 36.2% | Plaid Cymru 26.3% | 2 Reform UK, 2 Plaid Cymru, 1 Conservative, 1 Labour |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Alyn and Deeside within Flintshire
Alyn and Deeside sits entirely within Flintshire Council. Flintshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Flintshire | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2026 | Connah's Quay Central | Ref GAIN from Ind | Ref 48% Lab 19% Other 14% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bagillt | Labour 46.1%vs Reform 20.9% | 2022 Independent 52.3%vs Labour 39.3% | - | - |
| Broughton North East | Labour 43.0%vs Reform 22.9% | 2022 Labour 63.6%vs Independent 22.0% | - | - |
| Broughton South | Labour 40.9%vs Reform 21.3% | 2022 Labour 47.6%vs Independent 41.9% | - | - |
| Buckley: Bistre East | Labour 36.8%vs Reform 25.5% | Sitting Independent x2no contested ballot | - | - |
| Buckley: Bistre West | Labour 41.9%vs Reform 23.9% | Sitting Others x2no contested ballot | - | - |
| Buckley: Mountain | Labour 37.9%vs Reform 24.5% | Sitting Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Buckley: Pentrobin | Labour 38.4%vs Reform 24.3% | Sitting Independent x2no contested ballot | - | - |
| Caergwrle | Labour 44.9%vs Reform 19.9% | 2022 Labour 76.8%vs Independent 23.2% | - | - |
| Connah's Quay Central | Labour 38.4%vs Reform 25.8% | 2022 Independent 66.4%vs Labour 33.6% | - | - |
| Connah's Quay South | Labour 42.7%vs Reform 22.4% | 2022 Independent 51.8%vs Labour 42.2% | - | 29.5% |
| Connah's Quay: Golftyn | Labour 42.8%vs Conservative 19.8% | Sitting Independent x2no contested ballot | - | - |
| Connah's Quay: Wepre | Labour 47.8%vs Reform 21.7% | Sitting Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Flint: Castle | Labour 48.1%vs Reform 23.4% | Sitting Labour x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Flint: Coleshill and Trelawny | Labour 42.2%vs Reform 23.0% | Sitting Labour x3no contested ballot | - | - |
| Flint: Oakenholt | Labour 41.2%vs Reform 21.8% | Sitting Labour x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Hawarden: Aston | Labour 45.0%vs Reform 19.4% | Sitting Others x1 Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Hawarden: Ewloe | Labour 37.5%vs Conservative 25.3% | Sitting Independent x1 Labour x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Hawarden: Mancot | Labour 45.7%vs Reform 19.7% | Sitting Others x1 Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Higher Kinnerton | Labour 34.5%vs Reform 27.8% | 2017 Independent 80.3%vs Labour 19.7% | - | - |
| Hope | Labour 46.3%vs Conservative 19.0% | 2022 Labour 75.2%vs Independent 24.9% | - | - |
| Llanfynydd | Labour 47.4%vs Conservative 19.2% | 2022 Labour 65.5%vs Independent 34.5% | - | - |
| Pen-y-ffordd | Labour 42.8%vs Conservative 19.9% | 2022 Independent 55.6%vs Labour 44.4% | - | - |
| Queensferry and Sealand | Labour 44.2%vs Reform 25.4% | 2022 Labour 46.4%vs Independent 43.8% | - | - |
| Saltney Ferry | Labour 44.3%vs Reform 25.3% | 2022 Labour 53.3%vs Independent 40.8% | - | - |
| Shotton East and Shotton Higher | Labour 40.4%vs Reform 26.0% | 2022 Labour 56.1%vs Independent 43.9% | - | - |
| Shotton West | Labour 48.2%vs Reform 18.8% | 2022 Labour 76.5%vs Independent 23.5% | - | - |
| Treuddyn | Labour 41.2%vs Conservative 20.2% | 2022 Independent 54.4%vs Labour 45.6% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Alyn and Deeside at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Alyn and Deeside at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Mark Tami | 39.6% | 32.3% | 18.3% | 2,919 | 65.5% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Mark Tami | 40.0% | 31.9% | 4.2% | 3,343 | 66.6%+1.1 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Mark Tami | 52.1% | 40.4% | 2.4% | 5,235 | 71.0%+4.4 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Mark Tami 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 42.7% | 42.0% | 5.9% | 411 | 69.2%-1.8 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Mark Tami | 42.4% | 18.2% | 4.8% | 8,794 | 57.3%-11.9 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Alyn and Deeside
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Alyn and Deeside. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied70.7 / 71.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.8 / 13.7vs 20.2
- ↑Leave58.0 / 60.7vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.7 / 69.8vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.8 / 12.8vs 20.2
- ↑Leave58.0 / 58.7vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.7 / 71.2vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate27.4 / 26.3vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent13.8 / 14.7vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.7 / 69.1vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate27.4 / 25.9vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent13.8 / 15.2vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.7 / 73.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.8 / 12.9vs 20.2
- ↑Leave58.0 / 57.2vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.