Braintree
East of England · County constituency
About the Braintree constituency
Braintree is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Sir James Cleverly (Conservative), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 35.5% to 28.0% for Labour, a majority of 3,670 votes on a 63.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 37.8% and the Conservatives on 29.5%, a margin of 8.3 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in Braintree? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Braintree vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Braintree
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Braintree within Braintree and Uttlesford
Braintree crosses council boundaries: Braintree (93%), Uttlesford (7%). None of the constituent district councils were in the 2026 election cycle, but the Essex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Braintree | 93% |
| Uttlesford | 7% |
Essex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bocking | Ref | Ref 44% Con 25% Grn 14% | 39.5% |
| Braintree Town | Ref | Ref 44% Con 21% Grn 18% | 35.7% |
| Halstead | Ref | Ref 42% Con 28% Grn 15% | 43.8% |
| Hedingham | Ref | Ref 37% Independent 27% Con 25% | 51.3% |
| Three Fields & Great Notley | Ref | Ref 38% Con 29% Independent 20% | 50.0% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bocking Blackwater | Conservative 35.5%vs Labour 30.4% | 2023 Conservative 49.2%vs Labour 31.6% | - | 31.6% |
| Bocking North | Labour 38.8%vs Conservative 29.1% | 2023 Labour 48.9%vs Conservative 40.8% | - | 31.6% |
| Bocking South | Labour 31.5%vs Conservative 29.7% | 2023 Conservative 46.8%vs Labour 44.6% | - | 25.8% |
| Braintree Central & Beckers Green | Labour 34.0%vs Conservative 27.1% | 2023 Labour 48.6%vs Conservative 32.4% | - | 30.8% |
| Braintree South | Labour 33.3%vs Conservative 30.6% | 2023 Labour 43.5%vs Conservative 40.8% | - | 27.0% |
| Braintree West | Conservative 34.8%vs Labour 29.9% | 2023 Conservative 53.7%vs Labour 33.4% | - | 33.2% |
| Bumpstead | Conservative 45.5%vs Labour 24.1% | 2023 Conservative 60.2%vs Labour 29.6% | - | 34.9% |
| Felsted & Stebbing | Conservative 37.4%vs Labour 24.5% | 2023 Others 38.8%vs Lib Dem 32.0% | - | 38.4% |
| Gosfield & Greenstead Green | Conservative 41.2%vs Labour 23.4% | 2023 Conservative 52.6%vs Green 29.1% | - | 34.7% |
| Great Notley & Black Notley | Conservative 39.4%vs Labour 25.0% | 2023 Conservative 52.7%vs Labour 20.6% | - | 30.6% |
| Halstead St Andrew's | Conservative 32.9%vs Labour 28.7% | 2023 Others 55.3%vs Labour 23.1% | - | 27.4% |
| Halstead Trinity | Labour 30.9%vs Reform 27.9% | 2023 Others 44.7%vs Labour 41.4% | - | 26.5% |
| Hedingham | Conservative 35.8%vs Reform 26.2% | 2023 Independent 66.9%vs Conservative 21.2% | - | 31.7% |
| Rayne | Conservative 36.7%vs Reform 25.3% | 2023 Independent 64.0%vs Conservative 26.4% | - | 37.3% |
| Stour Valley North | Conservative 48.3%vs Labour 22.0% | 2023 Conservative 55.6%vs Labour 18.9% | - | 39.2% |
| Stour Valley South | Conservative 44.1%vs Reform 22.4% | 2023 Conservative 59.3%vs Green 23.9% | - | 37.6% |
| The Sampfords | Conservative 43.3%vs Labour 25.7% | 2023 Others 43.0%vs Conservative 42.5% | - | 45.3% |
| Three Fields | Conservative 41.1%vs Reform 22.6% | 2023 Independent 49.2%vs Conservative 37.6% | - | 45.4% |
| Yeldham | Conservative 38.8%vs Reform 24.3% | 2023 Conservative 44.2%vs Independent 39.9% | - | 32.4% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Braintree at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Braintree at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Brooks Newmark | 19.9% | 52.6% | 18.8% | 16,121 | 69.1% |
| 2015 | Con hold | James Cleverly | 18.5% | 53.8% | 4.9% | 17,610 | 68.4%-0.7 |
| 2017 | Con hold | James Cleverly | 27.6% | 62.8% | 4.3% | 18,422 | 69.5%+1.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | James Cleverly 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 18.2% | 67.5% | 9.7% | 25,466 | 68.3%-1.2 |
| 2024 | Con hold | James Cleverly | 28.0% | 35.5% | 5.9% | 3,670 | 63.1%-5.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Braintree
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Braintree. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave61.5 / 60.5vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.1 / 72.1vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate25.9 / 27.6vs 33.7
- ↑Leave61.5 / 60.7vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.1 / 71.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent15.2 / 13.7vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.1 / 69.8vs 61.9
- ↑Leave61.5 / 58.7vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent15.2 / 12.8vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate25.9 / 26.3vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.1 / 71.2vs 61.9
- ↑Leave61.5 / 59.7vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.1 / 70.7vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate25.9 / 27.4vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent15.2 / 13.8vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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