Witham
East of England · County constituency
About the Witham constituency
Witham is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Priti Patel (Conservative), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 37.2% to 27.0% for Labour, a majority of 5,145 votes on a 64.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 35.1% and the Conservatives on 27.1%, a margin of 8.0 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in Witham? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Witham vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Witham
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Witham within Braintree and Colchester and 1 other council
Witham crosses council boundaries: Braintree (58%), Colchester (29%), Maldon (14%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. In addition, the Essex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Braintree | 58% | — |
| Colchester | 29% | View projection › |
| Maldon | 14% | — |
Essex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braintree Eastern | Grn | Grn 46% Ref 32% Con 15% | 49.0% |
| Maldon Rural North | Ref | Ref 42% Con 30% Grn 13% | 47.3% |
| Mersea & Tiptree | Ref | Ref 38% Con 36% Grn 13% | 48.3% |
| Stanway & Marks Tey | Ref | Ref 33% Con 24% Independent 19% | 43.0% |
| Witham Town | Con | Con 40% Ref 30% Grn 19% | 38.3% |
| Witham West & Rural | Ref | Ref 43% Con 26% Grn 16% | 42.2% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Mar 2026 | Coggeshall | Ref GAIN from Ind | Ref 31% Other 29% Lab 20% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coggeshall | Conservative 34.9%vs Labour 24.2% | 2023 Independent 55.0%vs Conservative 29.3% | - | 39.3% |
| Great Totham | Conservative 39.5%vs Labour 26.3% | 2023 Others 53.6%vs Conservative 32.8% | - | 47.3% |
| Hatfield Peverel & Terling | Conservative 41.8%vs Labour 23.5% | 2023 Conservative 62.9%vs Labour 22.2% | - | 33.5% |
| Kelvedon & Feering | Conservative 35.1%vs Labour 26.1% | 2023 Green 53.3%vs Conservative 34.4% | - | 41.7% |
| Marks Tey and Layer | Conservative 43.3%vs Labour 24.7% | May 2026 Reform 38.1%vs Conservative 33.0% | Conservative→Reform +14.1pp | - |
| Silver End & Cressing | Conservative 31.7%vs Labour 23.2% | 2023 Green 69.5%vs Conservative 18.7% | - | 34.0% |
| Stanway | Conservative 35.3%vs Labour 23.5% | May 2026 Reform 32.8%vs Lib Dem 22.1% | Conservative→Reform +15.5pp | - |
| The Colnes | Conservative 36.7%vs Labour 26.5% | 2023 Conservative 55.6%vs Labour 23.1% | - | 34.8% |
| Tiptree | Conservative 44.9%vs Labour 25.4% | May 2026 Conservative 38.7%vs Reform 38.7% | Conservative share -6.2pp | - |
| Tollesbury | Conservative 37.5%vs Labour 25.6% | 2023 Others 75.1%vs Conservative 18.6% | - | 38.4% |
| Tolleshunt D'Arcy | Conservative 37.7%vs Labour 26.4% | 2023 Conservative 74.4%vs Lib Dem 25.6% | - | 29.8% |
| Wickham Bishops and Woodham | Conservative 42.4%vs Labour 23.2% | 2023 Conservative 63.6%vs Labour 24.2% | - | 39.2% |
| Witham Central | Conservative 34.4%vs Labour 30.7% | 2023 Conservative 38.8%vs Labour 25.3% | - | 32.9% |
| Witham North | Labour 35.9%vs Conservative 30.4% | 2023 Conservative 38.7%vs Labour 31.2% | - | 27.6% |
| Witham South | Labour 33.7%vs Conservative 30.9% | 2023 Labour 43.2%vs Conservative 38.7% | - | 27.0% |
| Witham West | Labour 34.4%vs Conservative 31.2% | 2023 Conservative 39.6%vs Labour 33.6% | - | 30.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Witham at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Witham at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Priti Patel | 18.5% | 52.2% | 19.8% | 15,196 | 69.9% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Priti Patel | 15.8% | 57.5% | 6.1% | 19,554 | 70.3%+0.4 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Priti Patel | 26.4% | 64.3% | 5.5% | 18,646 | 71.2%+0.9 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Priti Patel 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 17.5% | 66.7% | 10.0% | 25,669 | 69.4%-1.8 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Priti Patel | 27.0% | 37.2% | 6.8% | 5,145 | 64.1%-5.3 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Witham
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Witham. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied72.1 / 69.8vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.2 / 12.8vs 20.2
- ↑Leave60.5 / 58.7vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.1 / 71.4vs 61.9
- ↑Leave60.5 / 60.7vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent13.2 / 13.7vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.1 / 73.6vs 61.9
- ↑Leave60.5 / 60.8vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent13.2 / 14.9vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.1 / 71.2vs 61.9
- ↑Leave60.5 / 59.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate27.6 / 26.3vs 33.7
- ↑Leave60.5 / 61.5vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.1 / 69.1vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate27.6 / 25.9vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.