Sherwood Forest
East Midlands · County constituency
About the Sherwood Forest constituency
Sherwood Forest is a county constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Michelle Welsh (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 38.7% to 27.5% for the Conservatives, a majority of 5,443 votes on a 61.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 33.6% and Labour on 26.3%, a margin of 7.3 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Sherwood Forest? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Sherwood Forest vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Sherwood Forest
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Sherwood Forest within Newark and Sherwood and Ashfield and 1 other council
Sherwood Forest crosses council boundaries: Newark and Sherwood (47%), Ashfield (37%), Gedling (16%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Newark and Sherwood | 47% |
| Ashfield | 37% |
| Gedling | 16% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2025 | Calverton | Ind GAIN from Con | Other 66% Ref 18% Lab 8% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilsthorpe | Labour 37.7%vs Conservative 28.8% | 2023 Conservative 52.3%vs Labour 47.7% | - | 29.3% |
| Boughton | Labour 37.0%vs Conservative 29.3% | 2023 Conservative 52.4%vs Labour 47.6% | - | 30.9% |
| Calverton | Conservative 34.1%vs Labour 34.0% | 2023 Conservative 46.1%vs Independent 27.1% | - | 30.5% |
| Dover Beck | Conservative 36.9%vs Labour 30.9% | 2023 Conservative 71.2%vs Labour 28.8% | - | 38.1% |
| Edwinstowe & Clipstone | Labour 40.3%vs Conservative 25.7% | 2023 Labour 56.5%vs Conservative 43.5% | - | 25.7% |
| Farnsfield | Labour 37.1%vs Conservative 32.6% | 2023 Labour 51.4%vs Conservative 48.6% | - | 46.7% |
| Hucknall Central | Labour 43.4%vs Reform 22.8% | 2023 Others 53.4%vs Labour 36.6% | - | 32.5% |
| Hucknall North | Labour 42.9%vs Reform 25.0% | 2023 Others 56.5%vs Labour 25.0% | - | 38.7% |
| Hucknall South | Labour 41.4%vs Reform 26.0% | 2023 Others 62.1%vs Labour 25.4% | - | 32.6% |
| Hucknall West | Labour 36.6%vs Conservative 26.5% | 2023 Others 49.1%vs Conservative 39.4% | - | 35.0% |
| Lowdham | Conservative 37.4%vs Labour 32.6% | 2023 Conservative 61.7%vs Labour 38.3% | - | 42.4% |
| Newstead Abbey | Conservative 36.1%vs Labour 34.5% | 2023 Conservative 59.0%vs Labour 31.9% | - | 39.6% |
| Ollerton | Labour 43.9%vs Conservative 23.7% | 2023 Labour 86.1%vs Conservative 13.9% | - | 20.1% |
| Rainworth North & Rufford | Labour 41.5%vs Conservative 26.7% | 2023 Labour 45.7%vs Conservative 36.5% | - | 30.9% |
| Rainworth South & Blidworth | Labour 37.7%vs Reform 26.0% | 2023 Independent 39.5%vs Conservative 34.7% | - | 30.2% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Sherwood Forest at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Sherwood Forest at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con gain from Lab | Mark Spencer Sherwood MP | 38.8% | 39.2% | 14.9% | 214 | 68.5% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Mark Spencer Sherwood MP | 35.9% | 45.0% | 2.2% | 4,647 | 69.1%+0.6 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Mark Spencer Sherwood MP | 41.8% | 51.5% | 2.1% | 5,198 | 70.0%+0.9 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Mark Spencer Sherwood MP, pre-review boundary | 29.5% | 60.8% | 5.7% | 16,290 | 68.1% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Michelle Welsh | 38.7% | 27.5% | 3.8% | 5,443 | 61.7%-6.4 |
Sherwood Forest was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Sherwood (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Sherwood Forest
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Sherwood Forest. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied71.2 / 72.1vs 61.9
- ↑Leave59.7 / 60.5vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.3 / 27.6vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied71.2 / 70.7vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate26.3 / 27.4vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent14.7 / 13.8vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.2 / 71.4vs 61.9
- ↑Leave59.7 / 60.7vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent14.7 / 13.7vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.2 / 72.7vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate26.3 / 24.7vs 33.7
- ↑Leave59.7 / 64.9vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.2 / 69.8vs 61.9
- ↑Leave59.7 / 58.7vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent14.7 / 12.8vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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