Brentwood and Ongar
East of England · County constituency
About the Brentwood and Ongar constituency
Brentwood and Ongar is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Alex Burghart (Conservative), MP since June 2017. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 36.7% to 24.3% for Reform UK, a majority of 5,980 votes on a 64.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 39.3% and Reform UK on 27.6%, a margin of 11.7 points.
Who lives in Brentwood and Ongar? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Brentwood and Ongar vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Brentwood and Ongar
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Brentwood and Ongar within Brentwood and Epping Forest
Brentwood and Ongar crosses council boundaries: Brentwood (81%), Epping Forest (19%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent ward result with vote counts available. In addition, the Essex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | 2026 election |
|---|---|---|
| Brentwood | 81% | 2026 result › |
| Epping Forest | 19% | 2026 result › |
Essex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentwood Hutton | Ref | Ref 39% Con 36% LD 13% | 49.8% |
| Brentwood North | Ref | Ref 36% LD 35% Con 19% | 48.8% |
| Brentwood Rural | Ref | Ref 45% Con 32% LD 14% | 52.3% |
| Brentwood South | Ref | Ref 34% LD 31% Con 16% | 44.7% |
| Ongar & Rural | Ref | Ref 56% Con 27% LD 9% | 49.3% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent result with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentwood North | Conservative 29.8%vs Labour 25.8% | May 2026 Lib Dem 45.0%vs Reform 30.1% | Conservative→Lib Dem +23.3pp | 44.7% |
| Brentwood South | Labour 39.2%vs Conservative 25.1% | May 2026 Reform 27.2%vs Lib Dem 26.2% | Labour→Reform +10.4pp | 47.5% |
| Brentwood West | Conservative 30.3%vs Reform 26.6% | May 2026 Lib Dem 38.5%vs Reform 29.2% | Conservative→Lib Dem +18.4pp | - |
| Brizes, Stondon Massey & South Weald | Conservative 38.4%vs Reform 23.5% | May 2026 Reform 53.3%vs Conservative 26.0% | Conservative→Reform +21.1pp | 49.7% |
| Chigwell with Lambourne | Conservative 37.5%vs Reform 25.4% | May 2026 Conservative 51.1%vs Reform 38.5% | Conservative share +13.6pp | 47.2% |
| Herongate, Ingrave & West Horndon | Conservative 43.2%vs Reform 25.0% | May 2026 Reform 46.0%vs Conservative 25.9% | Conservative→Reform +19.2pp | 51.2% |
| Hutton East | Conservative 35.1%vs Reform 25.6% | May 2026 Reform 36.0%vs Conservative 31.8% | Conservative→Reform +6.9pp | 48.4% |
| Hutton North | Conservative 39.6%vs Labour 24.4% | May 2026 Conservative 41.0%vs Reform 34.9% | Conservative share +1.4pp | 48.0% |
| Hutton South | Conservative 42.8%vs Reform 24.3% | May 2026 Reform 40.7%vs Conservative 32.4% | Conservative→Reform +13.4pp | 46.5% |
| Ingatestone, Fryerning & Mountnessing | Conservative 39.2%vs Reform 24.1% | May 2026 Conservative 35.9%vs Reform 31.4% | Conservative share -3.3pp | 51.5% |
| North Weald Bassett | Conservative 36.0%vs Labour 26.5% | May 2026 Reform 49.5%vs Conservative 29.9% | Conservative→Reform +15.4pp | 49.1% |
| Ongar | Conservative 42.2%vs Labour 25.5% | May 2026 Reform 57.4%vs Conservative 22.3% | Conservative→Reform +29.3pp | 50.2% |
| Pilgrims Hatch | Conservative 28.5%vs Reform 25.7% | May 2026 Reform 45.5%vs Lib Dem 37.6% | Conservative→Reform +19.8pp | 46.6% |
| Shenfield | Conservative 39.7%vs Reform 23.2% | May 2026 Conservative 36.5%vs Reform 27.9% | Conservative share -3.2pp | 56.8% |
| Theydon Bois with Passingford | Conservative 51.9%vs Labour 22.8% | May 2026 Reform 44.8%vs Conservative 30.7% | Conservative→Reform +33.0pp | 53.7% |
| Warley | Conservative 30.0%vs Labour 26.7% | May 2026 Lib Dem 38.9%vs Reform 33.6% | Conservative→Lib Dem +18.9pp | 44.7% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Brentwood and Ongar at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Brentwood and Ongar at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Eric Pickles | 9.9% | 56.9% | 23.5% | 16,921 | 73.0% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Eric Pickles | 12.5% | 58.8% | 8.8% | 21,810 | 72.2%-0.8 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Alex Burghart | 20.4% | 65.8% | 8.4% | 24,002 | 70.5%-1.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Alex Burghart 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 13.7% | 68.5% | 13.6% | 28,974 | 70.5%+0.0 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Alex Burghart | 22.9% | 36.7% | 12.0% | 5,980 | 64.1%-6.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Brentwood and Ongar
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Brentwood and Ongar. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied72.1 / 74.3vs 61.9
- ↑Leave61.2 / 60.4vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent15.1 / 14.3vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.1 / 72.7vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent12.0 / 10.0vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent15.1 / 16.7vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.1 / 71.8vs 61.9
- ↑Leave61.2 / 58.6vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent15.1 / 13.8vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.1 / 72.4vs 61.9
- ↑Leave61.2 / 59.5vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent15.1 / 14.1vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.1 / 73.6vs 61.9
- ↑Leave61.2 / 60.8vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent15.1 / 14.9vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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