Gedling
East Midlands · County constituency · Gedling borough
About the Gedling constituency
Gedling is a county constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Michael Payne (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 47.8% to 23.4% for the Conservatives, a majority of 11,881 votes on a 63.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 39.3% and Reform UK on 24.6%, a margin of 14.7 points.
Who lives in Gedling? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Gedling vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Gedling
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Gedling within Gedling
Gedling sits entirely within Gedling Council. Gedling was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Gedling | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 May 2025 | Porchester | Lab HOLD | Lab 44% Ref 26% Con 15% |
| 20 Sep 2024 | Bestwood St Albans | Con GAIN from Ind | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bestwood St Albans | Labour 47.5%vs Conservative 25.1% | 2023 Labour 55.7%vs Conservative 32.5% | - | 27.3% |
| Carlton | Labour 49.4%vs Conservative 23.0% | 2023 Labour 56.5%vs Conservative 35.2% | - | 36.9% |
| Carlton Hill | Labour 48.2%vs Conservative 20.9% | 2023 Labour 63.4%vs Conservative 27.4% | - | 28.3% |
| Cavendish | Labour 46.5%vs Conservative 19.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 45.5%vs Labour 41.1% | - | 31.5% |
| Colwick | Labour 48.9%vs Conservative 23.0% | 2023 Labour 61.2%vs Conservative 34.3% | - | 33.1% |
| Coppice | Labour 51.7%vs Conservative 23.2% | 2023 Labour 65.3%vs Conservative 28.0% | - | 36.5% |
| Daybrook | Labour 50.3%vs Conservative 18.3% | 2023 Labour 79.8%vs Conservative 20.2% | - | 26.5% |
| Dumbles | Conservative 37.6%vs Labour 35.0% | 2023 Conservative 55.1%vs Labour 27.3% | - | 43.6% |
| Ernehale | Labour 47.3%vs Conservative 24.1% | 2023 Labour 57.1%vs Conservative 27.9% | - | 30.8% |
| Gedling | Labour 47.4%vs Conservative 22.6% | 2023 Labour 55.8%vs Conservative 29.0% | - | 35.5% |
| Netherfield | Labour 52.6%vs Reform 18.7% | 2023 Labour 71.3%vs Conservative 18.9% | - | 28.2% |
| Phoenix | Labour 43.1%vs Conservative 19.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 57.8%vs Labour 30.6% | - | 32.9% |
| Plains | Labour 43.7%vs Conservative 27.5% | 2023 Labour 51.4%vs Conservative 41.7% | - | 36.2% |
| Porchester | Labour 52.5%vs Conservative 21.3% | 2023 Labour 64.6%vs Conservative 23.9% | - | 44.4% |
| Redhill | Labour 51.5%vs Conservative 22.3% | 2023 Labour 72.7%vs Conservative 22.0% | - | 35.8% |
| Trent Valley | Labour 38.0%vs Conservative 32.4% | 2023 Conservative 52.0%vs Labour 40.1% | - | 45.9% |
| Woodthorpe | Labour 51.8%vs Conservative 23.6% | 2023 Labour 64.1%vs Conservative 24.9% | - | 48.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Gedling at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Gedling at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Vernon Coaker | 41.1% | 37.3% | 15.3% | 1,859 | 68.0% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Vernon Coaker | 42.3% | 36.1% | 4.0% | 2,986 | 68.6%+0.6 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Vernon Coaker | 51.9% | 42.8% | 2.0% | 4,694 | 72.6%+4.0 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Tom Randall 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 42.8% | 47.2% | 4.5% | 2,407 | 71.4%-1.2 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Michael Payne | 47.8% | 23.4% | 5.1% | 11,881 | 63.3%-8.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Gedling
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Gedling. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 72.7vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.0 / 10.1vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 72.1vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.0 / 12.0vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 74.3vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.0 / 10.5vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 72.2vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.0 / 10.5vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 73.6vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.0 / 10.6vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.