South Derbyshire
East Midlands · County constituency · South Derbyshire borough
About the South Derbyshire constituency
South Derbyshire is a county constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Samantha Niblett (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 38.8% to 29.7% for the Conservatives, a majority of 4,168 votes on a 62.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 31.2% and Reform UK on 28.3%, a margin of 2.9 points.
Who lives in South Derbyshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did South Derbyshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of South Derbyshire
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
South Derbyshire within South Derbyshire
South Derbyshire sits entirely within South Derbyshire Council. South Derbyshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| South Derbyshire | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | Seales | Ind GAIN from Lab | Other 56% Ref 24% Con 8% |
| 9 May 2024 | Melbourne | Con HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston | Labour 37.1%vs Conservative 33.4% | 2023 Conservative 53.3%vs Labour 46.7% | - | 29.2% |
| Church Gresley | Labour 40.0%vs Conservative 25.5% | 2023 Labour 62.6%vs Conservative 37.4% | - | 21.8% |
| Etwall | Conservative 34.4%vs Labour 32.5% | 2023 Conservative 62.9%vs Labour 37.1% | - | 32.4% |
| Linton | Labour 38.6%vs Conservative 30.1% | 2023 Labour 54.9%vs Conservative 45.1% | - | 27.7% |
| Melbourne | Labour 41.9%vs Conservative 34.2% | 2023 Conservative 42.1%vs Labour 34.7% | - | 52.6% |
| Midway | Labour 40.2%vs Conservative 27.1% | 2023 Labour 57.7%vs Conservative 42.3% | - | 22.4% |
| Newhall and Stanton | Labour 42.3%vs Conservative 25.0% | 2023 Labour 67.9%vs Conservative 32.1% | - | 21.0% |
| Repton | Conservative 37.1%vs Labour 30.9% | 2023 Conservative 59.9%vs Labour 29.6% | - | 39.6% |
| Seales | Labour 35.0%vs Conservative 31.2% | 2023 Independent 46.6%vs Conservative 29.4% | - | 48.2% |
| Stenson | Labour 48.0%vs Conservative 21.9% | 2023 Labour 76.3%vs Conservative 23.7% | - | 29.9% |
| Swadlincote | Labour 40.4%vs Conservative 25.3% | 2023 Labour 62.3%vs Conservative 37.7% | - | 20.4% |
| Willington and Findern | Labour 37.1%vs Conservative 34.2% | 2023 Labour 51.4%vs Conservative 48.6% | - | 32.9% |
| Woodville | Labour 40.5%vs Conservative 25.9% | 2023 Labour 58.0%vs Conservative 42.0% | - | 19.8% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for South Derbyshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won South Derbyshire at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Heather Wheeler | 31.4% | 45.5% | 15.9% | 7,128 | 71.4% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Heather Wheeler | 26.8% | 49.4% | 3.7% | 11,471 | 68.7%-2.7 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Heather Wheeler | 36.0% | 58.7% | 3.6% | 11,970 | 68.9%+0.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Heather Wheeler 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 27.2% | 62.1% | 7.3% | 16,483 | 66.3%-2.6 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Samantha Niblett | 38.8% | 29.7% | 4.7% | 4,168 | 62.0%-4.3 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like South Derbyshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to South Derbyshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied74.3 / 72.1vs 61.9
- ↑Leave60.4 / 61.2vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent14.3 / 15.1vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.3 / 73.6vs 61.9
- ↑Leave60.4 / 60.8vs 53.2
- ↓Social rent10.5 / 10.6vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied74.3 / 77.2vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.5 / 9.5vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent14.3 / 11.8vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.3 / 72.7vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.5 / 10.0vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent14.3 / 16.7vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.3 / 71.8vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent14.3 / 13.8vs 20.2
- ↑Leave60.4 / 58.6vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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