Melton and Syston
East Midlands · County constituency
About the Melton and Syston constituency
Melton and Syston is a county constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Edward Argar (Conservative), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 38.1% to 26.4% for Labour, a majority of 5,396 votes on a 61.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 35.5% and Reform UK on 27.8%, a margin of 7.7 points.
Who lives in Melton and Syston? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Melton and Syston vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Melton and Syston
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Melton and Syston within Melton and Charnwood
Melton and Syston crosses council boundaries: Melton (56%), Charnwood (44%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Melton | 56% |
| Charnwood | 44% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 May 2025 | Croxton Kerrial | Con GAIN from Ind | Con 53% Other 47% |
| 5 Nov 2024 | Sileby & Seagrave | Grn HOLD | — |
| 24 May 2024 | Wymondham | Con HOLD | — |
| 6 Nov 2023 | Asfordby | Lab GAIN from Grn | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asfordby | Conservative 34.0%vs Labour 29.5% | 2023 Conservative 37.8%vs Independent 37.5% | - | 34.5% |
| Bottesford | Conservative 39.1%vs Labour 28.2% | 2023 Conservative 67.5%vs Labour 32.5% | - | 34.4% |
| Croxton Kerrial | Conservative 37.5%vs Labour 26.3% | 2023 Independent 55.6%vs Conservative 44.4% | - | 33.5% |
| Frisby-on-the-Wreake | Conservative 46.8%vs Labour 20.8% | 2023 Conservative 65.8%vs Labour 19.7% | - | 44.6% |
| Gaddesby | Conservative 45.6%vs Labour 21.6% | 2023 Conservative 74.7%vs Labour 25.3% | - | 39.2% |
| Long Clawson and Stathern | Conservative 39.1%vs Labour 25.9% | 2023 Conservative 48.4%vs Independent 29.6% | - | 32.7% |
| Melton Craven | Conservative 31.6%vs Labour 26.1% | 2023 Independent 41.9%vs Conservative 39.5% | - | 26.5% |
| Melton Dorian | Labour 32.6%vs Conservative 30.1% | 2023 Independent 35.6%vs Conservative 30.6% | - | 28.9% |
| Melton Egerton | Labour 29.5%vs Conservative 29.4% | 2023 Labour 43.4%vs Independent 28.3% | - | 20.9% |
| Melton Newport | Conservative 37.2%vs Labour 28.8% | 2023 Independent 48.1%vs Conservative 39.3% | - | 34.1% |
| Melton Sysonby | Conservative 35.2%vs Labour 28.8% | 2023 Conservative 43.5%vs Independent 24.0% | - | 37.2% |
| Melton Warwick | Conservative 35.0%vs Labour 28.2% | 2023 Conservative 50.9%vs Independent 25.2% | - | 37.2% |
| Old Dalby | Conservative 40.4%vs Labour 27.1% | 2023 Conservative 56.7%vs Independent 43.3% | - | 37.8% |
| Sileby & Seagrave | Conservative 32.6%vs Labour 26.8% | 2023 Green 56.5%vs Conservative 25.5% | - | 30.6% |
| Somerby | Conservative 42.3%vs Labour 24.4% | 2023 Independent 56.0%vs Conservative 28.1% | - | 46.6% |
| South Charnwood | Conservative 36.8%vs Labour 33.3% | 2023 Conservative 45.7%vs Labour 40.1% | - | 32.1% |
| Syston | Conservative 43.5%vs Labour 24.9% | 2023 Green 42.1%vs Conservative 38.9% | - | 29.3% |
| Thurmaston | Conservative 41.0%vs Labour 28.9% | 2023 Conservative 57.2%vs Labour 33.2% | - | 33.5% |
| Waltham-on-the-Wolds | Conservative 35.5%vs Labour 26.9% | 2023 Independent 62.2%vs Conservative 37.8% | - | 34.1% |
| Wreake Valley | Conservative 41.5%vs Reform 20.4% | 2023 Green 49.5%vs Conservative 41.0% | - | 34.4% |
| Wymondham | Conservative 41.9%vs Labour 23.0% | 2023 Conservative 71.7%vs Labour 28.3% | - | 31.4% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Melton and Syston at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Melton and Syston at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Alan Duncan Rutland and Melton MP | 14.3% | 51.1% | 25.8% | 14,000 | 71.5% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Alan Duncan Rutland and Melton MP | 15.4% | 55.6% | 8.1% | 21,705 | 68.5%-3.0 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Alan Duncan Rutland and Melton MP | 22.7% | 62.8% | 8.2% | 23,104 | 73.4%+4.9 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Alicia Kearns Rutland and Melton MP, pre-review boundary | 23.5% | 63.3% | 7.7% | 19,004 | 66.7% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Edward Argar | 26.4% | 38.1% | 5.5% | 5,396 | 61.9%-4.8 |
Melton and Syston was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Rutland and Melton (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Melton and Syston
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Melton and Syston. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 72.7vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.1 / 10.0vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent16.0 / 16.7vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 72.2vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.1 / 10.5vs 16.8
- ↓Under 3525.2 / 24.5vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 69.2vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent16.0 / 16.4vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3525.2 / 27.3vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 73.2vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3525.2 / 25.5vs 30.2
- ↓Social rent10.1 / 12.2vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 70.9vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.1 / 11.0vs 16.8
- ↓Under 3525.2 / 25.0vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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