Central Suffolk and North Ipswich
East of England · County constituency
About the Central Suffolk and North Ipswich constituency
Central Suffolk and North Ipswich is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Patrick Spencer (Independent), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 32.6% to 23.4% for Labour, a majority of 4,290 votes on a 63.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 38.3% and the Conservatives on 22.8%, a margin of 15.5 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in Central Suffolk and North Ipswich? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Central Suffolk and North Ipswich vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Central Suffolk and North Ipswich
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Central Suffolk and North Ipswich within East Suffolk and Ipswich and 1 other council
Central Suffolk and North Ipswich crosses council boundaries: East Suffolk (42%), Ipswich (30%), Mid Suffolk (28%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. In addition, the Suffolk County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| East Suffolk | 42% | — |
| Ipswich | 30% | View projection › |
| Mid Suffolk | 28% | — |
Suffolk County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bosmere | Ref | Ref 33% Grn 29% Con 19% | — |
| Carlford | Con | Con 40% Ref 25% Grn 24% | 56.0% |
| Gipping Valley | Ref | Ref 36% Con 29% Grn 20% | — |
| Kesgrave | Con | Con 34% Grn 29% Ref 28% | — |
| Rushmere St Andrew | Ref | Ref 37% Con 29% Grn 14% | — |
| Thredling | Con | Con 37% Grn 31% Ref 28% | — |
| Westbourne | Ref | Ref 40% Grn 24% Lab 20% | — |
| Whitton | Ref | Ref 47% Lab 26% Grn 15% | — |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Mar 2025 | Rushmere St Andrew | Con HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Battisford & Ringshall | Conservative 29.0%vs Labour 27.0% | 2023 Green 68.6%vs Conservative 25.5% | - | 35.7% |
| Blakenham | Conservative 28.9%vs Labour 23.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 55.5%vs Conservative 44.5% | - | 26.4% |
| Bramford | Conservative 31.5%vs Labour 22.9% | 2023 Conservative 54.3%vs Green 27.6% | - | 34.1% |
| Carlford & Fynn Valley | Conservative 34.9%vs Labour 20.8% | 2023 Green 51.2%vs Conservative 48.8% | - | 39.4% |
| Castle Hill | Conservative 32.4%vs Labour 24.9% | May 2026 Reform 35.6%vs Conservative 21.9% | Conservative→Reform +12.9pp | 46.6% |
| Claydon & Barham | Conservative 33.5%vs Labour 20.8% | 2023 Green 42.8%vs Conservative 39.4% | - | 37.8% |
| Debenham | Conservative 32.0%vs Labour 23.1% | 2023 Green 61.9%vs Conservative 38.1% | - | 44.9% |
| Framlingham | Conservative 33.5%vs Reform 18.9% | 2023 Conservative 41.7%vs Green 32.8% | - | 57.3% |
| Kesgrave | Conservative 37.6%vs Labour 20.5% | 2023 Conservative 53.8%vs Lib Dem 24.2% | - | 42.1% |
| Needham Market | Conservative 28.4%vs Labour 24.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 46.5%vs Green 33.5% | - | 42.2% |
| Rushmere St Andrew | Conservative 33.3%vs Labour 22.3% | 2023 Conservative 46.8%vs Labour 32.6% | - | 35.1% |
| Stonham | Conservative 37.3%vs Labour 24.3% | 2023 Green 59.5%vs Conservative 40.5% | - | 44.7% |
| Whitehouse | Labour 32.0%vs Conservative 25.9% | May 2026 Reform 39.7%vs Green 26.1% | Labour→Reform +15.1pp | 35.1% |
| Whitton | Labour 30.2%vs Conservative 29.6% | May 2026 Reform 49.9%vs Labour 32.2% | Labour→Reform +14.2pp | 36.0% |
| Wickham Market | Conservative 32.6%vs Labour 22.3% | 2023 Green 62.6%vs Conservative 37.4% | - | 38.1% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Central Suffolk and North Ipswich at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Central Suffolk and North Ipswich at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Daniel Poulter | 16.2% | 50.8% | 25.0% | 13,786 | 70.5% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Daniel Poulter | 18.8% | 56.1% | 6.1% | 20,144 | 70.6%+0.1 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Dan Poulter | 29.7% | 60.1% | 4.3% | 17,185 | 72.4%+1.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Dan Poulter 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 21.8% | 61.9% | 10.6% | 20,213 | 71.0%-1.4 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Patrick Spencer | 23.4% | 32.6% | 11.6% | 4,290 | 63.6%-7.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Central Suffolk and North Ipswich
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Central Suffolk and North Ipswich. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied73.2 / 74.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.8 / 13.1vs 20.2
- ↑Age 65+27.8 / 29.2vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied73.2 / 72.2vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3525.5 / 24.5vs 30.2
- ↓Social rent12.2 / 10.5vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied73.2 / 72.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.8 / 14.1vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3525.5 / 25.1vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.2 / 73.6vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.8 / 14.9vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent12.2 / 10.6vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied73.2 / 73.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.8 / 12.9vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent12.2 / 12.4vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.