East Worthing and Shoreham
South East · County constituency
About the East Worthing and Shoreham constituency
East Worthing and Shoreham is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Tom Rutland (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 45.1% to 25.7% for the Conservatives, a majority of 9,519 votes on a 65.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 38.2% and Reform UK on 27.0%, a margin of 11.3 points.
Who lives in East Worthing and Shoreham? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did East Worthing and Shoreham vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of East Worthing and Shoreham
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
East Worthing and Shoreham within Adur and Worthing
East Worthing and Shoreham crosses council boundaries: Adur (66%), Worthing (34%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. In addition, the West Sussex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Adur | 66% | View projection › |
| Worthing | 34% | View projection › |
West Sussex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broadwater | Grn | Grn 35% Ref 23% Lab 23% | 49.5% |
| Cissbury | Con | Con 33% Ref 32% Lab 16% | 55.1% |
| Lancing | Ref | Ref 37% Lab 25% Con 16% | 44.4% |
| Shoreham North | Lab | Lab 34% Ref 26% Con 17% | 46.7% |
| Shoreham South | Grn | Grn 31% Independent 24% Ref 19% | 55.7% |
| Sompting & North Lancing | Ref | Ref 37% Independent 18% Lab 15% | 45.2% |
| Southwick | Lab | Lab 32% Ref 27% Con 20% | 43.1% |
| Worthing East | Grn | Grn 32% Lab 28% Ref 23% | 48.5% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broadwater | Labour 51.2%vs Conservative 21.4% | May 2026 Green 33.5%vs Reform 25.9% | Labour→Green +28.0pp | 46.8% |
| Buckingham | Labour 42.5%vs Conservative 27.7% | May 2026 Labour 38.5%vs Reform 23.9% | Labour share -4.0pp | 53.7% |
| Churchill | Labour 40.4%vs Conservative 27.0% | May 2026 Reform 29.7%vs Others 25.1% | Labour→Reform +19.7pp | 45.1% |
| Cokeham | Labour 42.4%vs Conservative 28.6% | May 2026 Reform 42.7%vs Conservative 19.9% | Labour→Reform +26.0pp | 44.5% |
| Eastbrook | Labour 47.1%vs Conservative 22.0% | May 2026 Labour 36.1%vs Reform 27.3% | Labour share -11.0pp | 42.4% |
| Gaisford | Labour 50.4%vs Conservative 22.6% | May 2026 Green 27.9%vs Labour 26.9% | Labour→Green +22.4pp | 51.7% |
| Hillside | Labour 41.7%vs Conservative 26.4% | May 2026 Reform 34.1%vs Labour 25.4% | Labour→Reform +16.7pp | 40.6% |
| Manor | Labour 35.7%vs Conservative 34.1% | May 2026 Others 38.3%vs Reform 30.2% | Labour→Others +29.9pp | 49.0% |
| Marine | Labour 45.0%vs Conservative 22.0% | May 2026 Others 48.7%vs Green 25.9% | Labour→Others +42.5pp | 57.8% |
| Mash Barn | Labour 50.9%vs Conservative 22.2% | May 2026 Labour 38.5%vs Reform 36.5% | Labour share -12.4pp | 43.8% |
| Offington | Labour 35.5%vs Conservative 34.9% | May 2026 Reform 32.3%vs Conservative 30.4% | Labour→Reform +18.1pp | 54.1% |
| Peverel | Labour 39.8%vs Conservative 29.1% | May 2026 Reform 38.5%vs Conservative 18.8% | Labour→Reform +22.0pp | 42.2% |
| Selden | Labour 51.9%vs Conservative 21.0% | May 2026 Green 31.7%vs Labour 29.0% | Labour→Green +24.5pp | 49.7% |
| Southlands | Labour 48.9%vs Conservative 24.1% | May 2026 Reform 35.9%vs Labour 29.6% | Labour→Reform +20.5pp | 41.1% |
| Southwick Green | Labour 47.0%vs Conservative 23.3% | May 2026 Labour 42.8%vs Reform 20.7% | Labour share -4.2pp | 46.4% |
| St Mary's | Labour 52.2%vs Conservative 20.9% | May 2026 Labour 43.6%vs Green 22.4% | Labour share -8.6pp | 48.1% |
| St Nicolas | Labour 40.4%vs Conservative 27.6% | May 2026 Green 40.8%vs Reform 18.8% | Labour→Green +27.1pp | 58.7% |
| Widewater | Labour 40.6%vs Conservative 28.5% | May 2026 Reform 45.3%vs Green 21.0% | Labour→Reform +25.8pp | 45.3% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for East Worthing and Shoreham at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won East Worthing and Shoreham at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Tim Loughton | 16.7% | 48.5% | 25.5% | 11,105 | 65.4% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Tim Loughton | 19.5% | 49.5% | 6.7% | 14,949 | 66.7%+1.3 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Tim Loughton | 39.3% | 48.9% | 4.7% | 5,106 | 70.3%+3.6 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Tim Loughton 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 37.0% | 51.0% | 7.8% | 7,474 | 70.4%+0.1 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Tom Rutland | 45.1% | 25.7% | 6.5% | 9,519 | 65.7%-4.7 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like East Worthing and Shoreham
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to East Worthing and Shoreham. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied72.2 / 73.2vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3524.5 / 25.5vs 30.2
- ↓Social rent10.5 / 12.2vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied72.2 / 74.4vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3524.5 / 24.8vs 30.2
- ↓Social rent10.5 / 11.4vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied72.2 / 70.9vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3524.5 / 24.3vs 30.2
- ↓Social rent10.5 / 11.9vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied72.2 / 72.7vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.5 / 10.0vs 16.8
- ↓Under 3524.5 / 26.6vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.2 / 71.1vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.5 / 12.1vs 16.8
- ↓Under 3524.5 / 25.7vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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