Spen Valley
Yorkshire and The Humber · Borough constituency · Kirklees borough
About the Spen Valley constituency
Spen Valley is a borough constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Kim Leadbeater (Labour), first elected in July 2021. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 39.1% to 24.1% for Reform UK, a majority of 6,188 votes on a 56.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 32.0% and Labour on 25.3%, a margin of 6.6 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Spen Valley? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Spen Valley vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Spen Valley
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Spen Valley within Kirklees
Spen Valley sits entirely within Kirklees Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Kirklees | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birstall and Birkenshaw | Labour 38.6%vs Conservative 25.3% | May 2026 Conservative 39.6%vs Reform 37.9% | Labour→Conservative +22.7pp | - |
| Cleckheaton | Labour 33.1%vs Reform 26.4% | May 2026 Lib Dem 39.8%vs Reform 39.6% | Labour→Lib Dem +29.2pp | 43.3% |
| Dalton | Labour 39.6%vs Reform 18.9% | May 2026 Reform 39.9%vs Labour 26.9% | Labour→Reform +16.9pp | - |
| Heckmondwike | Labour 46.9%vs Reform 21.9% | May 2026 Reform 36.1%vs Others 24.3% | Labour→Reform +20.1pp | - |
| Liversedge and Gomersal | Labour 38.0%vs Reform 25.8% | May 2026 Reform 43.2%vs Conservative 29.2% | Labour→Reform +22.0pp | - |
| Mirfield | Labour 38.1%vs Conservative 28.6% | May 2026 Reform 36.3%vs Conservative 34.5% | Labour→Reform +20.5pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Spen Valley at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Spen Valley at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | Mike Wood Batley and Spen MP | 42.2% | 33.6% | 15.8% | 4,406 | 66.6% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab hold | Jo Cox Batley and Spen MP | 43.2% | 31.2% | 4.7% | 6,057 | 64.4%-2.2 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | Tracy Brabin Batley and Spen MP | 55.5% | 38.8% | 2.3% | 8,961 | 67.1%+2.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Mark Eastwood Dewsbury MP, pre-review boundary | 33.5% | 46.4% | 5.8% | 6,064 | 65.4% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Kim Leadbeater | 39.2% | 24.0% | 3.5% | 6,188 | 56.5%-8.9 |
Spen Valley was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Batley and Spen (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Spen Valley
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Spen Valley. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Graduate27.8 / 29.7vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.2 / 65.6vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied69.2 / 72.7vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate27.8 / 30.1vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.2 / 67.5vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate27.8 / 30.8vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.2 / 72.7vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate27.8 / 31.5vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.2 / 68.1vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate27.8 / 30.7vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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