Bury North
North West · Borough constituency · Bury
About the Bury North constituency
Bury North is a borough constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is James Frith (Labour), MP since July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 43.1% to 27.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 6,944 votes on a 58.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 34.8% and Reform UK on 25.6%, a margin of 9.2 points.
Who lives in Bury North? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Bury North vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Bury North
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Bury North within Bury
Bury North sits entirely within Bury Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | 2026 election |
|---|---|---|
| Bury | 100% | 2026 result › |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jun 2026 | Moorside | Lab HOLD | Lab 39% Ref 31% Other 20% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent result with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bury East | Labour 47.3%vs Conservative 26.0% | May 2026 Labour 33.8%vs Reform 29.5% | Labour share -13.5pp | 35.0% |
| Bury West | Labour 38.4%vs Conservative 33.1% | May 2026 Reform 34.7%vs Conservative 31.3% | Labour→Reform +19.8pp | 50.0% |
| Elton | Labour 42.1%vs Conservative 28.6% | May 2026 Reform 40.7%vs Labour 27.8% | Labour→Reform +19.0pp | 45.0% |
| Moorside | Labour 45.7%vs Conservative 23.2% | 2024 Labour 43.9%vs Others 31.3% | - | 32.0% |
| North Manor | Labour 44.7%vs Conservative 32.4% | May 2026 Labour 35.3%vs Reform 29.6% | Labour share -9.4pp | 55.0% |
| Radcliffe North & Ainsworth | Labour 35.1%vs Conservative 27.6% | May 2026 Reform 35.8%vs Others 35.7% | Labour→Reform +19.9pp | 42.0% |
| Ramsbottom | Labour 49.0%vs Conservative 26.1% | May 2026 Labour 36.3%vs Reform 29.3% | Labour share -12.7pp | 50.0% |
| Redvales | Labour 47.9%vs Conservative 23.3% | May 2026 Others 36.1%vs Labour 22.6% | Labour→Others +30.7pp | 41.0% |
| Tottington | Labour 36.1%vs Conservative 30.8% | May 2026 Others 42.1%vs Reform 28.7% | Labour→Others +34.4pp | 50.0% |
| Unsworth | Labour 41.5%vs Conservative 24.3% | May 2026 Reform 34.1%vs Labour 25.9% | Labour→Reform +16.5pp | 47.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Bury North at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Bury North at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | David Nuttall | 35.2% | 40.2% | 17.0% | 2,243 | 67.3% |
| 2015 | Con hold | David Nuttall | 41.1% | 41.9% | 2.1% | 378 | 66.9%-0.4 |
| 2017 | Lab gain from Con | James Frith | 53.6% | 44.5% | 1.9% | 4,375 | 70.9%+4.0 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | James Daly 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 44.9% | 47.3% | 3.1% | 1,282 | 69.4%-1.5 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | James Frith | 43.1% | 27.9% | 2.9% | 6,944 | 58.6%-10.8 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Bury North
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bury North. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied67.5 / 71.4vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied67.5 / 69.2vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied67.5 / 69.4vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied67.5 / 64.4vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied67.5 / 68.9vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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