Keighley and Ilkley
Yorkshire and The Humber · County constituency · Bradford borough
About the Keighley and Ilkley constituency
Keighley and Ilkley is a county constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Robbie Moore (Conservative), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 40.2% to 36.7% for Labour, a majority of 1,625 votes on a 62.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 40.7% and Labour on 22.6%, a margin of 18.1 points.
Who lives in Keighley and Ilkley? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Keighley and Ilkley vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Keighley and Ilkley
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Keighley and Ilkley within Bradford
Keighley and Ilkley sits entirely within Bradford Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craven | Conservative 46.3%vs Labour 28.5% | 2024 Green 41.3%vs Conservative 38.5% | - | - |
| Ilkley | Conservative 43.5%vs Labour 30.4% | May 2026 Conservative 45.9%vs Green 34.8%now part of Ilkley Addingham | Conservative share +2.4pp | - |
| Keighley Central | Labour 46.7%vs Conservative 33.1% | May 2026 Others 41.1%vs Labour 25.4% | Labour→Others +31.2pp | - |
| Keighley East | Labour 44.6%vs Conservative 34.5% | May 2026 Labour 29.8%vs Reform 28.2% | Labour share -14.8pp | - |
| Keighley West | Labour 40.6%vs Conservative 37.5% | May 2026 Reform 36.0%vs Conservative 32.0% | Labour→Reform +24.2pp | - |
| Worth Valley | Conservative 44.5%vs Labour 33.0% | May 2026 Conservative 53.3%vs Reform 22.8% | Conservative share +8.8pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Keighley and Ilkley at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Keighley and Ilkley at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con gain from Lab | Kris Hopkins Keighley MP | 35.8% | 41.9% | 14.8% | 2,940 | 72.4% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Kris Hopkins Keighley MP | 38.1% | 44.3% | 2.7% | 3,053 | 71.3%-1.1 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab gain from Con | John Grogan Keighley MP | 46.5% | 46.1% | 2.4% | 239 | 72.4%+1.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Robbie Moore Keighley MP, pre-review boundary | 43.9% | 48.1% | 4.9% | 2,218 | 72.1% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Robbie Moore | 36.7% | 40.2% | 2.1% | 1,625 | 62.1%-10.0 |
Keighley and Ilkley was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Keighley (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Keighley and Ilkley
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Keighley and Ilkley. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied69.4 / 67.5vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.0 / 14.8vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied69.4 / 71.4vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.0 / 12.9vs 16.8
- ↓Social rent10.0 / 8.7vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied69.4 / 74.4vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.0 / 12.3vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied69.4 / 65.7vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied69.4 / 68.1vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.0 / 12.7vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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