Constituency profile

Keighley and Ilkley

Yorkshire and The Humber · County constituency · Bradford borough

Robbie Moore MP
Sitting MP

Robbie Moore

Conservative

First elected December 2019

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
Yorkshire and The Humber
County constituency, Bradford council
Last 5 GE winners
CCLCC
Conservative 4/5, Labour 1/5
EU referendum 2016
52.8% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +0.9pp above mean
Current outlook
Conservative +18.1pp
vs Labour 22.6%
NorthernBrexit-marginal

About the Keighley and Ilkley constituency

Keighley and Ilkley is a county constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Robbie Moore (Conservative), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 40.2% to 36.7% for Labour, a majority of 1,625 votes on a 62.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 40.7% and Labour on 22.6%, a margin of 18.1 points.

Who lives in Keighley and Ilkley? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
52.8%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
32.0%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
19.5%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
69.4%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
29.9%
UK average ~36%
Median age
42.8
UK median ~40
Age 65+
25.2%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
27.3%
UK average ~28%

How did Keighley and Ilkley vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 1,625 votes (3.5pp) · turnout 62.1%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Keighley and Ilkley

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Keighley and Ilkley within Bradford

Keighley and Ilkley sits entirely within Bradford Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Bradford
60 LSOAs
100%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
CravenConservative 46.3%vs Labour 28.5%2024 Green 41.3%vs Conservative 38.5%--
IlkleyConservative 43.5%vs Labour 30.4%May 2026 Conservative 45.9%vs Green 34.8%now part of Ilkley Addingham
Conservative share
+2.4pp
-
Keighley CentralLabour 46.7%vs Conservative 33.1%May 2026 Others 41.1%vs Labour 25.4%
Labour→Others
+31.2pp
-
Keighley EastLabour 44.6%vs Conservative 34.5%May 2026 Labour 29.8%vs Reform 28.2%
Labour share
-14.8pp
-
Keighley WestLabour 40.6%vs Conservative 37.5%May 2026 Reform 36.0%vs Conservative 32.0%
Labour→Reform
+24.2pp
-
Worth ValleyConservative 44.5%vs Labour 33.0%May 2026 Conservative 53.3%vs Reform 22.8%
Conservative share
+8.8pp
-

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Keighley and Ilkley at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Keighley and Ilkley at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorCon gain from LabKris Hopkins Keighley MP35.8%41.9%14.8%3.1% UKIP-4.4%2,94072.4%
2015predecessorCon holdKris Hopkins Keighley MP38.1%44.3%2.7%11.5% UKIP3.4%-3,05371.3%-1.1
2017predecessorLab gain from ConJohn Grogan Keighley MP46.5%46.1%2.4%2.5% UKIP1.5%1.0%23972.4%+1.1
2019notionalConservative winnerRobbie Moore Keighley MP, pre-review boundary43.9%48.1%4.9%--3.1%2,21872.1%
2024Con holdRobbie Moore36.7%40.2%2.1%10.4% Ref5.3%5.3%1,62562.1%-10.0

Keighley and Ilkley was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Keighley (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Keighley and Ilkley

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Keighley and Ilkley. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.