Harborough, Oadby and Wigston
East Midlands · County constituency
About the Harborough, Oadby and Wigston constituency
Harborough, Oadby and Wigston is a county constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Neil O'Brien (Conservative), first elected in June 2017. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 36.9% to 32.2% for Labour, a majority of 2,378 votes on a 65.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 33.1% and Reform UK on 20.0%, a margin of 13.1 points.
Who lives in Harborough, Oadby and Wigston? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Harborough, Oadby and Wigston vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Harborough, Oadby and Wigston
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Harborough, Oadby and Wigston within Oadby and Wigston and Harborough
Harborough, Oadby and Wigston crosses council boundaries: Oadby and Wigston (59%), Harborough (41%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Oadby and Wigston | 59% |
| Harborough | 41% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Dec 2025 | Market Harborough-Logan | Con GAIN from Ind | — |
| 18 Jul 2025 | Market Harborough-Logan | Con GAIN from LD | — |
| 20 Mar 2025 | Glen | Con HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glen | Conservative 45.7%vs Labour 28.4% | 2023 Conservative 56.9%vs Lib Dem 29.5% | - | 35.2% |
| Kibworths | Conservative 42.5%vs Labour 28.7% | 2023 Conservative 46.0%vs Lib Dem 31.0% | - | 39.3% |
| Lubenham | Conservative 43.4%vs Labour 29.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 46.2%vs Conservative 44.2% | - | 40.7% |
| Market Harborough-Great Bowden & Arden | Conservative 35.0%vs Labour 32.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 50.6%vs Conservative 25.8% | - | 39.9% |
| Market Harborough-Little Bowden | Conservative 37.0%vs Labour 33.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 37.9%vs Conservative 29.8% | - | 42.2% |
| Market Harborough-Logan | Conservative 39.4%vs Labour 28.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 49.6%vs Conservative 26.6% | - | 40.5% |
| Market Harborough-Welland | Conservative 34.1%vs Labour 32.6% | 2023 Green 35.0%vs Lib Dem 28.0% | - | 35.9% |
| Oadby Brocks Hill | Labour 35.4%vs Conservative 33.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 61.0%vs Conservative 39.0% | - | 17.9% |
| Oadby Grange | Conservative 41.0%vs Labour 30.2% | 2023 Conservative 49.8%vs Lib Dem 43.9% | - | 44.4% |
| Oadby St Peter's | Conservative 35.3%vs Labour 32.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 41.7%vs Conservative 39.7% | - | 37.1% |
| Oadby Uplands | Labour 35.9%vs Conservative 35.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 36.9%vs Conservative 34.6% | - | 49.1% |
| Oadby Woodlands | Conservative 38.0%vs Labour 31.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 56.0%vs Conservative 44.0% | - | 37.6% |
| South Wigston | Labour 34.4%vs Conservative 31.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 52.8%vs Conservative 47.2% | - | 21.3% |
| Wigston All Saints | Labour 35.9%vs Conservative 32.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 64.2%vs Conservative 35.8% | - | 30.6% |
| Wigston Fields | Labour 36.8%vs Conservative 30.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 67.6%vs Conservative 32.4% | - | 27.2% |
| Wigston Meadowcourt | Conservative 38.8%vs Labour 30.2% | 2023 Conservative 68.2%vs Lib Dem 31.8% | - | 32.3% |
| Wigston St Wolstan's | Labour 35.5%vs Conservative 33.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 58.0%vs Conservative 42.0% | - | 30.8% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Harborough, Oadby and Wigston at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Harborough, Oadby and Wigston at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Edward Garnier Harborough MP | 12.7% | 48.9% | 31.1% | 9,797 | 70.5% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Edward Garnier Harborough MP | 15.3% | 52.7% | 13.4% | 19,632 | 67.5%-3.0 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Neil O'Brien Harborough MP | 30.7% | 52.3% | 12.6% | 12,429 | 73.1%+5.6 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Neil O'Brien Harborough MP, pre-review boundary | 24.8% | 54.5% | 16.9% | 15,608 | 70.3% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Neil O'Brien | 32.2% | 36.9% | 9.4% | 2,378 | 65.4%-4.9 |
Harborough, Oadby and Wigston was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Harborough (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Harborough, Oadby and Wigston
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Harborough, Oadby and Wigston. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied74.4 / 77.8vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent8.7 / 7.7vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent15.5 / 13.5vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.4 / 78.9vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent8.7 / 7.3vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent15.5 / 13.0vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent8.7 / 10.0vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied74.4 / 69.4vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied74.4 / 71.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent15.5 / 15.2vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent8.7 / 12.9vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied74.4 / 77.5vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent8.7 / 8.7vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent15.5 / 13.0vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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