Sutton Coldfield
West Midlands · Borough constituency · Birmingham borough
About the Sutton Coldfield constituency
Sutton Coldfield is a borough constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Sir Andrew Mitchell (Conservative), first elected in June 2001. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 38.3% to 33.0% for Labour, a majority of 2,543 votes on a 65.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 33.9% and Reform UK on 25.5%, a margin of 8.4 points.
Who lives in Sutton Coldfield? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Sutton Coldfield vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Sutton Coldfield
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Sutton Coldfield within Birmingham
Sutton Coldfield sits entirely within Birmingham Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sutton Four Oaks | Conservative 44.9%vs Labour 26.6% | May 2026 Conservative 58.1%vs Reform 21.9% | Conservative share +13.3pp | - |
| Sutton Mere Green | Conservative 42.6%vs Labour 28.9% | May 2026 Conservative 46.0%vs Reform 27.2% | Conservative share +3.4pp | - |
| Sutton Reddicap | Conservative 37.2%vs Labour 32.2% | May 2026 Conservative 52.8%vs Reform 26.1% | Conservative share +15.6pp | - |
| Sutton Roughley | Conservative 39.4%vs Labour 29.3% | May 2026 Conservative 40.4%vs Reform 33.2% | Conservative share +1.0pp | - |
| Sutton Trinity | Conservative 36.1%vs Labour 34.3% | May 2026 Conservative 36.6%vs Green 29.7% | Conservative share +0.4pp | - |
| Sutton Vesey | Labour 44.1%vs Conservative 30.2% | May 2026 Conservative 32.7%vs Labour 27.1% | Labour→Conservative +9.8pp | - |
| Sutton Walmley & Minworth | Conservative 40.7%vs Labour 29.0% | May 2026 Conservative 42.1%vs Reform 36.6% | Conservative share +1.5pp | - |
| Sutton Wylde Green | Conservative 41.2%vs Labour 31.4% | May 2026 Conservative 52.4%vs Reform 20.4% | Conservative share +11.2pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Sutton Coldfield at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Sutton Coldfield at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Andrew Mitchell | 20.4% | 54.0% | 18.0% | 17,005 | 67.9% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Andrew Mitchell | 22.3% | 54.6% | 5.2% | 16,417 | 67.8%-0.1 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Andrew Mitchell | 31.9% | 61.0% | 4.4% | 15,339 | 69.9%+2.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Andrew Mitchell 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 23.6% | 60.4% | 12.2% | 19,272 | 70.2%+0.3 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Andrew Mitchell | 33.0% | 38.3% | 5.4% | 2,543 | 65.2%-5.0 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Sutton Coldfield
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Sutton Coldfield. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied77.5 / 71.2vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate41.1 / 42.6vs 33.7
- ↓Under 3523.8 / 23.8vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied77.5 / 77.8vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent8.7 / 7.7vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent13.0 / 13.5vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied77.5 / 73.7vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent8.7 / 9.5vs 16.8
- ↑Graduate41.1 / 38.8vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied77.5 / 73.0vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent8.7 / 9.7vs 16.8
- ↑Graduate41.1 / 44.6vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied77.5 / 79.7vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent8.7 / 5.8vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent13.0 / 13.5vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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