Ribble Valley
North West · County constituency
About the Ribble Valley constituency
Ribble Valley is a county constituency in the North West, spanning parts of Ribble Valley, South Ribble and neighbouring councils. The sitting MP is Maya Ellis (Labour), first elected in July 2024.
At the 2024 general election, Labour won Ribble Valley with 34.9% of the vote, ahead of the Conservatives on 33.3%, a majority of 856 votes. Turnout was 64.6%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has the Conservatives on 31.0% and Reform UK on 27.5% in Ribble Valley, a margin of 3.5 points, a projected change from Labour since 2024. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Ribble Valley is a Leave-leaning area (an estimated 58.7% voted Leave in 2016). About 37.6% of residents hold a degree, 79.7% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 46 (2021 Census).
Across the last 5 general elections on record, the seat has been won by the Conservatives 4 times, Labour 1 time (earlier years may be on predecessor boundaries).
Who lives in Ribble Valley? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Ribble Valley vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Ribble Valley
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.
Ribble Valley within Ribble Valley and South Ribble and 1 other council
Ribble Valley crosses multiple council boundaries: Ribble Valley (37%), South Ribble (36%), Preston (27%). The figures below come from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026 in each constituent council where they were held; for councils not in the 2026 election cycle the most recent available ward result is shown instead.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Ribble Valley | 37% | — |
| South Ribble | 36% | — |
| Preston | 27% | View projection › |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2024 | Bamber Bridge West | Lab HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Ribble Valley at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Ribble Valley at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Nigel Evans | 22.0% | 50.3% | 20.5% | 14,769 | 67.2% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Nigel Evans | 22.6% | 48.6% | 5.3% | 13,606 | 67.5%+0.3 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Nigel Evans | 33.9% | 57.8% | 5.9% | 13,199 | 70.8%+3.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Nigel Evans 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 27.6% | 59.8% | 8.0% | 16,839 | 68.7%-2.1 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Maya Ellis | 34.9% | 33.3% | 9.6% | 856 | 64.6%-4.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Ribble Valley
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Ribble Valley. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied79.7 / 79.8vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent5.8 / 7.0vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent13.5 / 12.8vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied79.7 / 77.5vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.5 / 10.6vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3524.9 / 24.2vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied79.7 / 73.5vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.5 / 13.2vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3524.9 / 25.3vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied79.7 / 78.6vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent5.8 / 7.8vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent13.5 / 12.9vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied79.7 / 77.2vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent5.8 / 9.5vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent13.5 / 11.8vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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