Ribble Valley
North West · County constituency
About the Ribble Valley constituency
Ribble Valley is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Maya Ellis (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 34.9% to 33.3% for the Conservatives, a majority of 856 votes on a 64.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 31.0% and Reform UK on 27.0%, a margin of 4.0 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Ribble Valley? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Ribble Valley vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Ribble Valley
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Ribble Valley within Ribble Valley and South Ribble and 1 other council
Ribble Valley crosses council boundaries: Ribble Valley (37%), South Ribble (36%), Preston (27%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Ribble Valley | 37% | — |
| South Ribble | 36% | — |
| Preston | 27% | View projection › |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2024 | Bamber Bridge West | Lab HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alston & Hothersall | Conservative 35.3%vs Labour 30.0% | 2019 Conservative 70.5%vs Labour 29.5% | - | 25.0% |
| Bamber Bridge East | Labour 44.8%vs Conservative 24.7% | 2023 Labour 69.1%vs Conservative 22.7% | - | 25.5% |
| Bamber Bridge West | Labour 41.3%vs Conservative 24.0% | 2023 Labour 66.5%vs Conservative 33.5% | - | 23.8% |
| Billington & Langho | Conservative 36.4%vs Labour 30.9% | 2023 Conservative 62.9%vs Labour 19.7% | - | 38.0% |
| Bowland | Labour 36.4%vs Conservative 34.9% | Sitting Conservative x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Brockhall & Dinckley | Conservative 40.3%vs Labour 27.4% | 2023 Conservative 77.4%vs Labour 22.6% | - | 32.9% |
| Chipping | Conservative 36.5%vs Labour 31.8% | 2023 Conservative 67.8%vs Labour 32.2% | - | 37.2% |
| Clayton-le-Dale & Salesbury | Conservative 39.9%vs Labour 26.3% | 2019 Conservative 85.2%vs Labour 14.8% | - | 35.8% |
| Coupe Green & Gregson Lane | Labour 38.1%vs Conservative 33.5% | 2023 Conservative 46.1%vs Labour 43.6% | - | 38.3% |
| Derby & Thornley | Labour 34.4%vs Conservative 31.7% | 2023 Labour 54.1%vs Conservative 45.9% | - | 28.6% |
| Dilworth | Labour 35.2%vs Conservative 32.7% | 2023 Labour 58.7%vs Conservative 41.3% | - | 31.6% |
| Gisburn & Rimington | Conservative 36.9%vs Labour 30.1% | 2023 Conservative 64.0%vs Labour 21.8% | - | 27.8% |
| Greyfriars | Labour 33.5%vs Conservative 30.4% | May 2026 Lib Dem 45.1%vs Reform 22.3% | Labour→Lib Dem +26.5pp | - |
| Hurst Green & Whitewell | Conservative 35.5%vs Labour 34.5% | 2023 Conservative 59.8%vs Labour 40.2% | - | 33.7% |
| Lostock Hall | Labour 41.7%vs Conservative 29.5% | 2023 Labour 56.3%vs Conservative 38.4% | - | 33.3% |
| Mellor | Conservative 43.4%vs Labour 26.8% | 2023 Conservative 74.2%vs Independent 25.8% | - | 37.0% |
| Preston Rural East | Conservative 38.8%vs Labour 31.1% | May 2026 Reform 32.3%vs Conservative 27.0% | Conservative→Reform +13.9pp | - |
| Preston Rural North | Conservative 40.4%vs Labour 28.2% | May 2026 Reform 34.1%vs Lib Dem 32.3% | Conservative→Reform +20.7pp | - |
| Ribchester | Labour 37.9%vs Conservative 33.0% | 2023 Labour 53.3%vs Conservative 36.7% | - | 43.3% |
| Samlesbury & Walton | Labour 34.2%vs Conservative 33.6% | 2023 Conservative 60.2%vs Labour 34.5% | - | 32.5% |
| Sharoe Green | Labour 39.7%vs Conservative 28.8% | May 2026 Lib Dem 34.3%vs Reform 22.5% | Labour→Lib Dem +26.2pp | - |
| Waddington, Bashall Eaves & Mitton | Conservative 35.7%vs Labour 29.4% | 2023 Conservative 53.5%vs Lib Dem 31.6% | - | 33.6% |
| Walton-le-Dale East | Labour 41.3%vs Conservative 26.8% | 2023 Labour 67.0%vs Conservative 33.0% | - | 32.0% |
| Walton-le-Dale West | Labour 36.8%vs Conservative 31.4% | 2023 Conservative 53.0%vs Labour 37.3% | - | 32.1% |
| West Bradford & Grindleton | Conservative 40.6%vs Labour 28.3% | 2023 Conservative 60.8%vs Labour 21.8% | - | 36.1% |
| Whalley Nethertown | Conservative 34.4%vs Labour 33.6% | 2023 Independent 34.8%vs Labour 33.8% | - | 35.5% |
| Wilpshire & Ramsgreave | Labour 35.3%vs Conservative 32.6% | 2023 Conservative 56.4%vs Labour 43.6% | - | 33.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Ribble Valley at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Ribble Valley at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Nigel Evans | 22.0% | 50.3% | 20.5% | 14,769 | 67.2% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Nigel Evans | 22.6% | 48.6% | 5.3% | 13,606 | 67.5%+0.3 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Nigel Evans | 33.9% | 57.8% | 5.9% | 13,199 | 70.8%+3.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Nigel Evans 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 27.6% | 59.8% | 8.0% | 16,839 | 68.7%-2.1 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Maya Ellis | 34.9% | 33.3% | 9.6% | 856 | 64.6%-4.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Ribble Valley
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Ribble Valley. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied79.7 / 79.8vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent5.8 / 7.0vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent13.5 / 12.8vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied79.7 / 77.5vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.5 / 10.6vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3524.9 / 24.2vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied79.7 / 73.5vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.5 / 13.2vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3524.9 / 25.3vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied79.7 / 78.6vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent5.8 / 7.8vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent13.5 / 12.9vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied79.7 / 77.2vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent5.8 / 9.5vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent13.5 / 11.8vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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