Stockton West
North East · County constituency
About the Stockton West constituency
Stockton West is a county constituency in the North East. The sitting MP is Matt Vickers (Conservative), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 41.9% to 37.5% for Labour, a majority of 2,139 votes on a 67.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 37.2% and Labour on 29.4%, a margin of 7.8 points.
Who lives in Stockton West? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Stockton West vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Stockton West
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Stockton West within Stockton-on-Tees and Darlington
Stockton West crosses council boundaries: Stockton-on-Tees (90%), Darlington (10%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Stockton-on-Tees | 90% |
| Darlington | 10% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Dec 2025 | Eaglescliffe West | Con HOLD | Con 61% Ref 24% Lab 8% |
| 20 Sep 2024 | Fairfield | Con HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bishopsgarth & Elm Tree | Labour 39.1%vs Conservative 38.8% | 2023 Conservative 62.4%vs Labour 37.6% | - | 42.1% |
| Eaglescliffe East | Conservative 40.4%vs Labour 38.8% | 2023 Conservative 66.9%vs Labour 19.4% | - | 51.5% |
| Eaglescliffe West | Conservative 46.5%vs Labour 38.8% | 2023 Conservative 62.3%vs Labour 29.7% | - | 43.2% |
| Fairfield | Conservative 43.3%vs Labour 38.0% | 2023 Conservative 45.0%vs Labour 27.4% | - | 34.2% |
| Grangefield | Labour 47.3%vs Conservative 30.6% | 2023 Labour 62.6%vs Conservative 37.4% | - | 35.2% |
| Hartburn | Conservative 44.9%vs Labour 34.4% | 2023 Conservative 67.2%vs Labour 19.1% | - | 45.7% |
| Hurworth | Conservative 45.0%vs Labour 28.9% | 2023 Conservative 53.2%vs Lib Dem 23.6% | - | 40.7% |
| Ingleby Barwick North | Labour 41.5%vs Conservative 35.9% | 2023 Conservative 37.1%vs Others 33.0% | - | 42.1% |
| Ingleby Barwick South | Conservative 42.5%vs Labour 40.4% | 2023 Others 49.1%vs Conservative 30.0% | - | 40.3% |
| Northern Parishes | Conservative 42.3%vs Labour 32.0% | 2023 Conservative 64.3%vs Independent 18.7% | - | 112.1% |
| Sadberge & Middleton St George | Conservative 42.2%vs Labour 31.6% | 2023 Conservative 45.5%vs Independent 23.5% | - | 43.0% |
| Southern Villages | Conservative 47.9%vs Labour 32.9% | 2023 Conservative 70.5%vs Labour 29.5% | - | 41.7% |
| Village | Labour 42.6%vs Conservative 32.5% | 2023 Others 55.2%vs Conservative 23.9% | - | 27.7% |
| Yarm | Conservative 44.1%vs Labour 35.0% | 2023 Conservative 62.8%vs Independent 19.5% | - | 50.8% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Stockton West at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Stockton West at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | Phil Wilson Sedgefield MP | 45.1% | 23.5% | 20.0% | 8,696 | 62.1% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab hold | Phil Wilson Sedgefield MP | 47.2% | 29.5% | 3.5% | 6,843 | 61.6%-0.5 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | Phil Wilson Sedgefield MP | 53.4% | 38.8% | 1.9% | 6,059 | 65.1%+3.5 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Paul Howell Sedgefield MP, pre-review boundary | 33.9% | 56.5% | 4.4% | 11,749 | 74.2% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Matt Vickers | 37.5% | 41.9% | 2.5% | 2,139 | 67.7%-6.5 |
Stockton West was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Sedgefield (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Stockton West
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Stockton West. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied79.8 / 79.7vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent7.0 / 5.8vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent12.8 / 13.5vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied79.8 / 77.5vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.8 / 10.6vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3524.8 / 24.2vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied79.8 / 76.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.8 / 11.8vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3524.8 / 25.0vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied79.8 / 77.2vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.8 / 11.8vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent7.0 / 9.5vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied79.8 / 78.6vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent7.0 / 7.8vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent12.8 / 12.9vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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