Solihull West and Shirley
West Midlands · Borough constituency · Solihull borough
About the Solihull West and Shirley constituency
Solihull West and Shirley is a borough constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Dr Neil Shastri-Hurst (Conservative), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 34.7% to 24.9% for Labour, a majority of 4,620 votes on a 65.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 35.2% and Reform UK on 26.2%, a margin of 9.1 points.
Who lives in Solihull West and Shirley? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Solihull West and Shirley vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Solihull West and Shirley
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Solihull West and Shirley within Solihull
Solihull West and Shirley sits entirely within Solihull Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Solihull | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blythe | Conservative 38.8%vs Labour 25.1% | May 2026 Conservative 44.5%vs Reform 31.9% | Conservative share +5.6pp | - |
| Lyndon | Conservative 29.1%vs Labour 25.6% | May 2026 Lib Dem 39.5%vs Reform 31.4% | Conservative→Lib Dem +17.2pp | - |
| Olton | Conservative 32.1%vs Lib Dem 23.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 32.0%vs Conservative 30.3% | Conservative→Lib Dem +5.4pp | - |
| Shirley East | Conservative 36.0%vs Labour 27.9% | May 2026 Conservative 50.4%vs Reform 19.7%now part of Shirley East Sharmans Cross | Conservative share +14.4pp | - |
| Shirley South | Conservative 31.3%vs Labour 23.8% | May 2026 Green 37.9%vs Reform 28.9% | Conservative→Green +16.1pp | - |
| Shirley West | Conservative 29.4%vs Labour 28.1% | May 2026 Reform 34.5%vs Green 33.2% | Conservative→Reform +11.9pp | - |
| St Alphege | Conservative 42.2%vs Labour 22.1% | May 2026 Conservative 51.9%vs Reform 26.1%now part of St Alphege With Monkspath Hillfield | Conservative share +9.7pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Solihull West and Shirley at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Solihull West and Shirley at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | LD gain from Con | Lorely Burt Solihull MP | 8.9% | 42.6% | 42.9% | 175 | 72.3% |
| 2015predecessor | Con gain from LD | Julian Knight Solihull MP | 10.4% | 49.2% | 25.7% | 12,902 | 70.3%-2.0 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Julian Knight Solihull MP | 21.9% | 58.1% | 15.7% | 20,571 | 73.0%+2.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Julian Knight Solihull MP, pre-review boundary | 19.5% | 60.9% | 15.7% | 20,798 | 71.1% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Neil Shastri-Hurst | 24.9% | 34.7% | 16.9% | 4,620 | 65.3%-5.8 |
Solihull West and Shirley was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Solihull (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Solihull West and Shirley
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Solihull West and Shirley. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied77.8 / 74.4vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent7.7 / 8.7vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent13.5 / 15.5vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied77.8 / 77.5vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent7.7 / 8.7vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent13.5 / 13.0vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied77.8 / 78.9vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent7.7 / 7.3vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent13.5 / 13.0vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied77.8 / 71.2vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate40.0 / 42.6vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent13.5 / 15.4vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied77.8 / 73.3vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.5 / 11.3vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate40.0 / 37.2vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.