Constituency profile

Mid Leicestershire

East Midlands · County constituency

Mr Peter Bedford MP
Sitting MP

Mr Peter Bedford

Conservative

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
East Midlands
County constituency
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCC
Conservative 5/5
EU referendum 2016
59.0% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +7.1pp above mean
Current outlook
Conservative +0.1pp
vs Reform UK 32.6%
MidlandsLeave-leaning

About the Mid Leicestershire constituency

Mid Leicestershire is a county constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Mr Peter Bedford (Conservative), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 36.9% to 32.3% for Labour, a majority of 2,201 votes on a 63.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 32.7% and Reform UK on 32.6%, a margin of 0.1 points.

Who lives in Mid Leicestershire? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
59.0%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
32.9%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
17.1%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
78.9%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
20.3%
UK average ~36%
Median age
43.2
UK median ~40
Age 65+
25.4%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
26.5%
UK average ~28%

How did Mid Leicestershire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 2,201 votes (4.6pp) · turnout 63.3%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Mid Leicestershire

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Mid Leicestershire within Blaby and Charnwood and 1 other council

Mid Leicestershire crosses council boundaries: Blaby (42%), Charnwood (37%), Hinckley and Bosworth (22%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Blaby
25 LSOAs
42%
Charnwood
22 LSOAs
37%
Hinckley and Bosworth
13 LSOAs
22%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
AnsteyConservative 43.6%vs Labour 29.4%2023 Conservative 51.9%vs Labour 31.0%-37.1%
Birstall East & WanlipConservative 35.4%vs Labour 34.7%2023 Conservative 48.6%vs Labour 42.4%-32.2%
Birstall WestConservative 36.4%vs Labour 34.4%2023 Conservative 52.9%vs Labour 39.1%-33.3%
Braunstone MillfieldLabour 41.9%vs Conservative 28.7%2023 Labour 82.4%vs Green 17.6%-25.2%
Braunstone RavenhurstLabour 33.2%vs Conservative 28.3%Sitting Labour x2no contested ballot--
Forest BradgateConservative 50.0%vs Labour 23.2%2023 Conservative 67.9%vs Labour 19.8%-41.3%
Glenfield EllisConservative 35.0%vs Labour 29.9%2023 Conservative 51.0%vs Lib Dem 49.0%-27.1%
Glenfield FaireConservative 34.4%vs Labour 33.2%2023 Conservative 56.9%vs Green 43.1%-26.2%
GrobyConservative 38.7%vs Labour 28.1%2023 Lib Dem 56.6%vs Conservative 35.5%-33.8%
Kirby MuxloeLabour 35.9%vs Conservative 33.0%2023 Green 60.9%vs Conservative 33.8%-36.5%
Leicester Forest & LubbesthorpeConservative 34.3%vs Labour 32.2%2023 Conservative 47.3%vs Lib Dem 39.0%-27.7%
Markfield, Stanton and FieldheadConservative 36.4%vs Labour 35.5%2023 Labour 47.2%vs Conservative 46.6%-37.1%
MountsorrelConservative 39.9%vs Labour 31.7%2023 Labour 48.8%vs Conservative 39.5%-32.4%
Ratby, Bagworth and ThorntonConservative 43.2%vs Labour 25.9%2023 Conservative 66.0%vs Labour 12.4%-32.9%
Rothley BrookConservative 39.2%vs Labour 30.1%2023 Conservative 58.2%vs Labour 33.2%-33.7%
Thorpe Astley & St Mary'sLabour 38.6%vs Conservative 29.8%2023 Labour 52.8%vs Conservative 21.0%-26.3%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Mid Leicestershire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Mid Leicestershire at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorCon holdStephen Dorrell Charnwood MP19.7%49.6%21.5%3.4% UKIP-5.8%15,02971.9%
2015predecessorCon holdEdward Argar Charnwood MP21.9%54.3%6.9%15.9% UKIP-0.9%16,93167.6%-4.3
2017predecessorCon holdEdward Argar Charnwood MP30.8%60.4%3.7%2.7% UKIP1.9%0.6%16,34170.7%+3.1
2019notionalConservative winnerEdward Argar Charnwood MP, pre-review boundary25.6%62.2%8.0%-4.1%0.1%20,18872.5%
2024Con holdPeter Bedford32.3%36.9%5.1%18.6% Ref7.1%-2,20163.3%-9.2

Mid Leicestershire was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Charnwood (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Mid Leicestershire

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Mid Leicestershire. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.