Spelthorne
South East · Borough constituency · Spelthorne
About the Spelthorne constituency
Spelthorne is a borough constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Lincoln Jopp (Conservative), MP since July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 30.4% to 27.0% for Labour, a majority of 1,590 votes on a 62.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 33.5% and Reform UK on 24.6%, a margin of 9.0 points.
Who lives in Spelthorne? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Spelthorne vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Spelthorne
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Spelthorne within Spelthorne
Spelthorne sits entirely within Spelthorne Council. Spelthorne is being replaced by the new West Surrey Council, which held its first election on 7 May 2026. Those results are not yet matched to this seat's wards, so the figures below are the most recent Spelthorne ward results. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Spelthorne | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2025 | Staines | LD GAIN from Grn | LD 38% Ref 24% Other 13% |
| 19 Jun 2025 | Ashford Town | LD GAIN from Con | LD 27% Ref 23% Con 19% |
| 19 Jul 2024 | Ashford East | Con GAIN from Ind | - |
| 10 Sep 2023 | Ashford Town | Con GAIN from Ind | - |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent result with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashford Common | Conservative 33.3%vs Labour 24.8% | 2023 Conservative 48.0%vs Independent 31.2% | - | 131.5% |
| Ashford East | Conservative 34.9%vs Labour 25.5% | 2023 Independent 46.4%vs Conservative 34.8% | - | 125.9% |
| Ashford North and Stanwell South | Labour 31.0%vs Conservative 29.9% | 2023 Labour 45.5%vs Conservative 32.9% | - | 109.0% |
| Ashford Town | Conservative 31.7%vs Labour 27.7% | 2023 Conservative 36.0%vs Independent 32.2% | - | 135.6% |
| Halliford and Sunbury West | Conservative 27.8%vs Lib Dem 25.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 61.5%vs Conservative 32.3% | - | 105.0% |
| Laleham and Shepperton Green | Conservative 33.8%vs Labour 24.7% | 2023 Conservative 50.5%vs Green 25.6% | - | 143.9% |
| Riverside and Laleham | Conservative 31.2%vs Labour 25.4% | 2023 Independent 42.3%vs Conservative 38.4% | - | 139.4% |
| Shepperton Town | Conservative 37.8%vs Labour 23.8% | 2023 Conservative 56.7%vs Green 12.8% | - | 158.4% |
| Staines | Labour 31.9%vs Conservative 24.9% | 2023 Green 44.1%vs Conservative 24.9% | - | 160.9% |
| Staines South | Labour 25.6%vs Conservative 25.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 53.7%vs Conservative 27.8% | - | 144.2% |
| Stanwell North | Labour 31.0%vs Conservative 26.6% | 2023 Labour 57.9%vs Conservative 42.1% | - | 94.0% |
| Sunbury Common | Labour 28.0%vs Conservative 25.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 52.8%vs Independent 22.8% | - | 125.2% |
| Sunbury East | Conservative 31.1%vs Labour 26.4% | 2023 Conservative 50.0%vs Lib Dem 36.4% | - | 128.5% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Spelthorne at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Spelthorne at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Kwasi Kwarteng | 16.5% | 47.1% | 25.9% | 10,019 | 67.1% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Kwasi Kwarteng | 18.6% | 49.7% | 6.4% | 14,152 | 68.6%+1.5 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Kwasi Kwarteng | 30.5% | 57.3% | 5.5% | 13,425 | 69.0%+0.4 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Kwasi Kwarteng 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 21.7% | 58.9% | 15.1% | 18,393 | 67.9%-1.1 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Lincoln Jopp | 27.0% | 30.4% | 18.9% | 1,590 | 62.6%-5.3 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Spelthorne
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Spelthorne. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave60.3 / 61.0vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied68.1 / 68.2vs 61.9
- ↑Employed61.8 / 60.3vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied68.1 / 67.2vs 61.9
- ↑Leave60.3 / 58.6vs 53.2
- ↑Employed61.8 / 62.8vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied68.1 / 71.4vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent12.7 / 12.9vs 16.8
- ↑Leave60.3 / 55.5vs 53.2
- ↑Leave60.3 / 57.9vs 53.2
- ↑Employed61.8 / 65.0vs 57.3
- ↑Leave60.3 / 59.0vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied68.1 / 66.9vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent12.7 / 12.5vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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