Northampton South
East Midlands · Borough constituency · West Northamptonshire borough
About the Northampton South constituency
Northampton South is a borough constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Mike Reader (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 38.5% to 29.2% for the Conservatives, a majority of 4,071 votes on a 62.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 28.9% and Labour on 27.1%, a margin of 1.8 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Northampton South? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Northampton South vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Northampton South
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Northampton South within West Northamptonshire
Northampton South sits entirely within West Northamptonshire Council. West Northamptonshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| West Northamptonshire | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Feb 2024 | East Hunsbury and Shelfleys | LD GAIN from Con | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billing and Rectory Farm | Labour 42.0%vs Conservative 26.4% | 2021 Conservative 51.9%vs Labour 44.9% | - | - |
| Delapre and Rushmere | Labour 43.9%vs Conservative 25.4% | 2021 Labour 37.8%vs Conservative 36.2% | - | - |
| Duston East | Labour 38.7%vs Conservative 29.6% | 2021 Conservative 42.3%vs Labour 36.4% | - | - |
| Duston West and St. Crispin | Labour 38.8%vs Conservative 31.1% | 2021 Conservative 60.1%vs Lib Dem 13.2% | - | - |
| East Hunsbury and Shelfleys | Labour 33.9%vs Conservative 32.2% | 2021 Conservative 68.4%vs Lib Dem 20.3% | - | - |
| Nene Valley | Labour 36.6%vs Conservative 31.9% | 2021 Conservative 66.2%vs Lib Dem 11.6% | - | - |
| Riverside Park | Labour 35.7%vs Conservative 32.4% | 2021 Conservative 60.0%vs Labour 33.5% | - | - |
| Sixfields | Labour 38.0%vs Conservative 25.5% | 2021 Conservative 41.9%vs Labour 33.5% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Northampton South at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Northampton South at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Brian Binley | 25.4% | 40.8% | 19.4% | 6,004 | 61.8% |
| 2015 | Con hold | David Mackintosh | 31.8% | 41.6% | 4.3% | 3,793 | 63.4%+1.6 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Andrew Lewer | 44.0% | 46.9% | 3.4% | 1,159 | 66.4%+3.0 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Andrew Lewer 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 30.9% | 57.8% | 7.9% | 13,324 | 69.4%+3.0 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Mike Reader | 38.5% | 29.2% | 7.3% | 4,071 | 62.4%-7.0 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Northampton South
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Northampton South. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave59.0 / 58.6vs 53.2
- ↑Employed64.4 / 62.8vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied66.9 / 67.2vs 61.9
- ↑Leave59.0 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↑Employed64.4 / 61.4vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied66.9 / 64.9vs 61.9
- ↑Employed64.4 / 63.8vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied66.9 / 68.3vs 61.9
- ↑Leave59.0 / 56.3vs 53.2
- ↑Employed64.4 / 63.6vs 57.3
- ↑Leave59.0 / 56.9vs 53.2
- ↑Employed64.4 / 62.6vs 57.3
- ↑Leave59.0 / 57.6vs 53.2
- ↓Social rent12.5 / 14.1vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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