Northampton South
East Midlands · Borough constituency · West Northamptonshire
About the Northampton South constituency
Northampton South is a borough constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Mike Reader (Labour), MP since July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 38.5% to 29.2% for the Conservatives, a majority of 4,071 votes on a 62.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 28.6% and the Conservatives on 26.4%, a margin of 2.1 points.
Who lives in Northampton South? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Northampton South vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Northampton South
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Northampton South within West Northamptonshire
Northampton South sits entirely within West Northamptonshire Council. West Northamptonshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| West Northamptonshire | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent result with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billing and Rectory Farm | Labour 42.0%vs Conservative 26.4% | 2025 Reform 36.7%vs Conservative 21.9%2025 ward: Billing, covering 50% of this ward | - | 30.3% |
| Delapre and Rushmere | Labour 43.9%vs Conservative 25.4% | 2025 Reform 34.1%vs Labour 20.9%2025 ward: Far Cotton, Delapre & Briar Hill, covering 100% of this ward | - | 25.7% |
| Duston East | Labour 38.7%vs Conservative 29.6% | 2025 Reform 41.5%vs Conservative 26.4%2025 ward: Duston, covering 100% of this ward | - | 34.5% |
| Duston West and St. Crispin | Labour 38.8%vs Conservative 31.1% | 2025 Reform 41.5%vs Conservative 26.4%2025 ward: Duston, covering 57% of this ward | - | 34.5% |
| East Hunsbury and Shelfleys | Labour 33.9%vs Conservative 32.2% | 2025 Conservative 32.9%vs Reform 32.3%2025 ward: Hunsbury, covering 100% of this ward | - | 33.8% |
| Nene Valley | Labour 36.6%vs Conservative 31.9% | 2025 Reform 37.8%vs Conservative 24.3%2025 ward: Nene Valley, covering 86% of this ward | - | 28.4% |
| Riverside Park | Labour 35.7%vs Conservative 32.4% | 2025 Conservative 35.2%vs Reform 27.9%2025 ward: Weston Favell & Abington Vale, covering 78% of this ward | - | 37.6% |
| Sixfields | Labour 38.0%vs Conservative 25.5% | 2025 Reform 34.1%vs Labour 20.9%2025 ward: Far Cotton, Delapre & Briar Hill, covering 33% of this ward | - | 25.7% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Northampton South at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Northampton South at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Brian Binley | 25.4% | 40.8% | 19.4% | 6,004 | 61.8% |
| 2015 | Con hold | David Mackintosh | 31.8% | 41.6% | 4.3% | 3,793 | 63.4%+1.6 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Andrew Lewer | 44.0% | 46.9% | 3.4% | 1,159 | 66.4%+3.0 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Andrew Lewer 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 30.9% | 57.8% | 7.9% | 13,324 | 69.4%+3.0 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Mike Reader | 38.5% | 29.2% | 7.3% | 4,071 | 62.4%-7.0 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Northampton South
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Northampton South. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave59.0 / 58.6vs 53.2
- ↑Employed64.4 / 62.8vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied66.9 / 67.2vs 61.9
- ↑Leave59.0 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↑Employed64.4 / 61.4vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied66.9 / 64.9vs 61.9
- ↑Employed64.4 / 63.8vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied66.9 / 68.3vs 61.9
- ↑Leave59.0 / 56.3vs 53.2
- ↑Employed64.4 / 63.6vs 57.3
- ↑Leave59.0 / 56.9vs 53.2
- ↑Employed64.4 / 62.6vs 57.3
- ↑Leave59.0 / 57.6vs 53.2
- ↓Social rent12.5 / 14.1vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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