Constituency profile

Romford

London · Borough constituency · Havering borough

Andrew Rosindell MP
Sitting MP

Andrew Rosindell

Reform UK

First elected June 2001

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
London
Borough constituency, Havering council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCC
Conservative 5/5
EU referendum 2016
69.3% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +17.4pp above mean
Current outlook
Reform UK +1.4pp
Vulnerability score 6/10 (Conservative projected to lose)
LondonStrong Leave areaDiverse

About the Romford constituency

Romford is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Andrew Rosindell (Reform UK), first elected in June 2001. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 34.8% to 31.5% for Labour, a majority of 1,463 votes on a 60.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 33.1% and the Conservatives on 31.7%, a margin of 1.4 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.

Who lives in Romford? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
69.3%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
30.9%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
19.3%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
67.9%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
30.8%
UK average ~36%
Median age
38.6
UK median ~40
Age 65+
20.5%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
31.5%
UK average ~28%

How did Romford vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 1,463 votes (3.3pp) · turnout 60.4%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Romford

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Romford within Havering

Romford sits entirely within Havering Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Havering
63 LSOAs
100%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Havering-atte-BowerConservative 32.9%vs Labour 30.9%May 2026 Conservative 46.6%vs Labour 36.3%
Conservative share
+13.6pp
-
Hylands & Harrow LodgeConservative 34.8%vs Labour 31.6%May 2026 Reform 41.2%vs Others 33.2%
Conservative→Reform
+22.9pp
-
Marshalls & Rise ParkConservative 38.4%vs Labour 29.8%May 2026 Reform 43.4%vs Conservative 20.2%
Conservative→Reform
+20.4pp
-
MawneysConservative 37.3%vs Labour 28.9%May 2026 Reform 40.0%vs Conservative 32.3%
Conservative→Reform
+11.0pp
-
Rush Green & CrowlandsLabour 34.8%vs Conservative 30.1%May 2026 Reform 32.6%vs Conservative 26.6%
Labour→Reform
+13.5pp
-
Squirrels HeathConservative 39.1%vs Labour 28.3%May 2026 Reform 43.1%vs Conservative 17.5%
Conservative→Reform
+21.5pp
-
St Alban'sLabour 36.4%vs Conservative 28.4%May 2026 Reform 31.7%vs Labour 26.4%
Labour→Reform
+10.0pp
44.0%
St Edward'sConservative 34.5%vs Labour 34.5%May 2026 Reform 34.0%vs Conservative 21.4%
Conservative→Reform
+12.6pp
42.3%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Romford at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Romford at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con holdAndrew Rosindell19.5%56.0%12.0%4.4% UKIP1.0%7.1%16,95465.2%
2015Con holdAndrew Rosindell20.9%51.0%2.9%22.8% UKIP2.5%-13,85967.7%+2.5
2017Con holdAndrew Rosindell31.8%59.4%2.4%4.7% UKIP1.6%-13,77868.0%+0.3
2019notionalConservative winnerAndrew Rosindell 2019 MP, pre-review boundary26.4%64.8%5.8%-3.0%-18,53665.6%-2.4
2024Con holdAndrew Rosindell31.5%34.8%4.3%21.8% Ref5.0%2.5%1,46360.4%-5.2

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Romford

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Romford. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.