Gravesham
South East · County constituency · Gravesham borough
About the Gravesham constituency
Gravesham is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Dr Lauren Sullivan (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 38.5% to 32.2% for the Conservatives, a majority of 2,712 votes on a 59.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 34.4% and Reform UK on 33.4%, a margin of 1.0 points.
Who lives in Gravesham? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Gravesham vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Gravesham
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Gravesham within Gravesham
Gravesham sits entirely within Gravesham Council. Gravesham was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Gravesham | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 May 2025 | Rosherville | Lab HOLD | Lab 44% Ref 30% Con 16% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chalk | Conservative 39.7%vs Labour 29.6% | 2023 Conservative 70.6%vs Labour 29.4% | - | 40.3% |
| Coldharbour & Perry Street | Labour 45.1%vs Conservative 25.0% | 2023 Labour 67.0%vs Conservative 33.0% | - | - |
| Denton | Labour 46.0%vs Conservative 24.2% | 2023 Labour 68.8%vs Conservative 31.2% | - | - |
| Higham & Shorne | Conservative 41.1%vs Labour 30.0% | 2023 Conservative 67.5%vs Labour 25.5% | - | - |
| Istead Rise, Cobham & Luddesdown | Conservative 43.7%vs Labour 27.8% | 2023 Conservative 73.0%vs Labour 27.0% | - | - |
| Meopham North | Conservative 43.5%vs Labour 27.2% | 2023 Conservative 60.0%vs Labour 21.5% | - | 37.8% |
| Meopham South & Vigo | Conservative 43.2%vs Labour 24.6% | 2023 Conservative 51.9%vs Lib Dem 30.5% | - | 41.8% |
| Northfleet & Springhead | Labour 41.6%vs Conservative 27.6% | 2023 Labour 54.8%vs Conservative 45.2% | - | - |
| Painters Ash | Labour 37.7%vs Conservative 33.6% | 2023 Conservative 51.9%vs Labour 48.1% | - | 34.0% |
| Pelham | Labour 47.8%vs Conservative 25.8% | 2023 Labour 67.8%vs Conservative 24.0% | - | 24.1% |
| Riverview Park | Conservative 38.2%vs Labour 33.5% | 2023 Conservative 62.9%vs Labour 31.8% | - | - |
| Rosherville | Labour 50.3%vs Conservative 21.2% | 2023 Labour 79.1%vs Conservative 20.9% | - | - |
| Singlewell | Labour 38.2%vs Conservative 28.5% | 2023 Labour 56.3%vs Conservative 43.7% | - | 16.0% |
| Town | Labour 47.7%vs Conservative 26.8% | 2023 Labour 62.8%vs Conservative 32.2% | - | - |
| Westcourt | Labour 40.6%vs Conservative 28.3% | 2023 Labour 58.7%vs Conservative 41.3% | - | 18.4% |
| Whitehill & Windmill Hill | Labour 40.5%vs Conservative 30.9% | 2023 Labour 51.9%vs Conservative 48.1% | - | - |
| Woodlands | Labour 35.3%vs Conservative 34.7% | 2023 Conservative 49.5%vs Labour 39.6% | - | 35.6% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Gravesham at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Gravesham at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Adam Holloway | 28.8% | 48.5% | 13.3% | 9,312 | 67.4% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Adam Holloway | 30.1% | 46.8% | 2.2% | 8,370 | 69.6%+2.2 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Adam Holloway | 36.5% | 55.6% | 2.5% | 9,347 | 67.2%-2.4 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Adam Holloway 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 29.4% | 62.2% | 5.4% | 15,581 | 65.3%-1.9 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Lauren Sullivan | 38.5% | 32.2% | 3.5% | 2,712 | 59.1%-6.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Gravesham
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Gravesham. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave65.4 / 64.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.7 / 27.5vs 33.7
- ↓Graduate26.7 / 26.4vs 33.7
- ↑Leave65.4 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↑Leave65.4 / 69.5vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.7 / 29.3vs 33.7
- ↑Leave65.4 / 61.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.7 / 23.5vs 33.7
- ↑Leave65.4 / 69.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.7 / 30.9vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.