Swindon South
South West · Borough constituency · Swindon borough
About the Swindon South constituency
Swindon South is a borough constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Heidi Alexander (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 48.4% to 26.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 9,606 votes on a 61.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 38.6% and Reform UK on 28.7%, a margin of 9.9 points.
Who lives in Swindon South? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Swindon South vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Swindon South
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Swindon South within Swindon
Swindon South sits entirely within Swindon Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Swindon | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central | Labour 53.2%vs Conservative 23.4% | 2024 Labour 53.0%vs Conservative 21.0% | - | 40.0% |
| Chiseldon and Lawn | Labour 36.4%vs Conservative 35.4% | 2023 Labour 51.2%vs Conservative 37.6% | - | 43.1% |
| Covingham and Dorcan | Labour 39.1%vs Conservative 36.3% | 2024 Conservative 48.5%vs Labour 45.0% | - | 37.0% |
| Eastcott | Labour 53.5%vs Conservative 18.9% | 2024 Labour 61.5%vs Lib Dem 16.3% | - | 35.0% |
| Liden, Eldene and Park South | Labour 47.3%vs Conservative 27.5% | 2024 Labour 53.6%vs Conservative 27.1% | - | 31.0% |
| Lydiard and Freshbrook | Labour 45.2%vs Conservative 28.6% | May 2026 Reform 33.1%vs Labour 28.1%now part of Lydiard Freshbrook Toothill | Labour→Reform +17.4pp | 43.0% |
| Mannington and Western | Labour 51.2%vs Conservative 22.9% | 2024 Labour 67.2%vs Conservative 22.8% | - | 27.0% |
| Old Town | Labour 55.9%vs Conservative 24.8% | May 2026 Labour 41.0%vs Conservative 21.6%now part of Old Town Lawn | Labour share -14.9pp | 50.1% |
| Shaw | Labour 44.6%vs Conservative 30.2% | May 2026 Conservative 34.7%vs Labour 27.6%now part of Shaw Westlea | Labour→Conservative +10.7pp | 48.1% |
| Walcot and Park North | Labour 51.2%vs Conservative 23.1% | 2024 Labour 64.6%vs Conservative 20.8% | - | 27.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Swindon South at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Swindon South at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con gain from Lab | Robert Buckland South Swindon MP | 34.3% | 41.8% | 17.6% | 3,544 | 64.9% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Robert Buckland South Swindon MP | 34.5% | 46.2% | 3.7% | 5,785 | 66.6%+1.7 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Robert Buckland South Swindon MP | 43.6% | 48.4% | 4.1% | 2,464 | 70.8%+4.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Robert Buckland South Swindon MP, pre-review boundary | 40.2% | 51.6% | 7.6% | 5,650 | 68.3% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Heidi Alexander | 48.4% | 26.9% | 4.1% | 9,606 | 61.7%-6.6 |
Swindon South was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat South Swindon (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Swindon South
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Swindon South. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Employed63.0 / 65.0vs 57.3
- ↓Graduate28.4 / 30.0vs 33.7
- ↓Age 65+18.1 / 19.5vs 22.7
- ↓Age 65+18.1 / 19.4vs 22.7
- ↑Employed63.0 / 59.8vs 57.3
- ↑Employed63.0 / 63.0vs 57.3
- ↓Graduate28.4 / 27.5vs 33.7
- ↓Age 65+18.1 / 16.6vs 22.7
- ↓Graduate28.4 / 29.6vs 33.7
- ↓Age 65+18.1 / 20.6vs 22.7
- ↓Age 65+18.1 / 20.4vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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