Bedford
East of England · Borough constituency · Bedford borough
About the Bedford constituency
Bedford is a borough constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Mohammad Yasin (Labour), first elected in June 2017. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 45.1% to 21.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 9,430 votes on a 56.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 33.4% and Reform UK on 22.1%, a margin of 11.3 points.
Who lives in Bedford? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Bedford vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Bedford
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Bedford within Bedford
Bedford sits entirely within Bedford Council. Bedford was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Bedford | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 May 2024 | Riverfield | LD HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brickhill | Labour 34.7%vs Conservative 26.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 52.1%vs Conservative 27.1% | - | 37.7% |
| Castle & Newnham | Labour 41.9%vs Conservative 18.2% | 2023 Green 57.3%vs Lib Dem 18.4% | - | 53.1% |
| Cauldwell | Labour 51.7%vs Conservative 19.6% | 2023 Labour 61.7%vs Conservative 22.6% | - | 28.3% |
| De Parys | Labour 36.9%vs Conservative 26.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 56.7%vs Conservative 20.2% | - | 35.1% |
| Goldington | Labour 46.3%vs Conservative 22.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 48.9%vs Labour 34.8% | - | 31.7% |
| Greyfriars | Labour 45.8%vs Reform 16.0% | 2023 Green 36.2%vs Labour 29.5% | - | 26.1% |
| Harpur | Labour 52.5%vs Conservative 18.8% | 2023 Labour 59.8%vs Conservative 16.1% | - | 28.9% |
| Kempston Central & East | Labour 44.2%vs Conservative 23.7% | 2023 Labour 51.0%vs Lib Dem 29.8% | - | 29.2% |
| Kempston North | Labour 49.5%vs Conservative 24.7% | 2023 Labour 64.8%vs Conservative 22.7% | - | 31.8% |
| Kempston South | Labour 58.4%vs Conservative 18.9% | 2023 Labour 82.8%vs Conservative 10.4% | - | 33.5% |
| Kempston West | Labour 49.7%vs Conservative 27.1% | 2023 Labour 68.6%vs Conservative 21.3% | - | 28.8% |
| Kingsbrook | Labour 46.8%vs Conservative 18.6% | 2023 Labour 38.9%vs Lib Dem 38.9% | - | 30.6% |
| Putnoe | Labour 32.8%vs Conservative 29.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 61.0%vs Conservative 21.7% | - | 43.1% |
| Queens Park | Labour 52.8%vs Conservative 18.7% | 2023 Labour 50.2%vs Independent 38.2% | - | 43.0% |
| Renhold & Ravensden | Conservative 38.2%vs Labour 24.5% | 2023 Independent 49.6%vs Conservative 34.9% | - | 36.9% |
| Riverfield | Labour 34.3%vs Conservative 23.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 55.4%vs Conservative 23.6% | - | 32.1% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Bedford at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Bedford at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Richard Fuller | 35.9% | 38.9% | 19.9% | 1,353 | 65.8% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Richard Fuller | 40.2% | 42.6% | 4.2% | 1,097 | 66.5%+0.7 |
| 2017 | Lab gain from Con | Mohammad Yasin | 46.8% | 45.2% | 5.9% | 789 | 67.5%+1.0 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Mohammad Yasin 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 44.3% | 42.0% | 10.0% | 1,113 | 66.5%-1.0 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Mohammad Yasin | 45.1% | 21.9% | 9.9% | 9,430 | 56.1%-10.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Bedford
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bedford. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Private rent24.6 / 23.8vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied54.6 / 59.1vs 61.9
- ↓Owner-occupied54.6 / 55.8vs 61.9
- ↓Owner-occupied54.6 / 58.2vs 61.9
- ↓Owner-occupied54.6 / 51.9vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent24.6 / 25.4vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied54.6 / 56.5vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent24.6 / 24.2vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.