Stoke-on-Trent Central
West Midlands · Borough constituency · Stoke-on-Trent borough
About the Stoke-on-Trent Central constituency
Stoke-on-Trent Central is a borough constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Gareth Snell (Labour (Co-op)), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 42.4% to 24.2% for Reform UK, a majority of 6,409 votes on a 47.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 35.6% and Reform UK on 33.1%, a margin of 2.5 points.
Who lives in Stoke-on-Trent Central? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Stoke-on-Trent Central vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Stoke-on-Trent Central
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Stoke-on-Trent Central within Stoke-on-Trent
Stoke-on-Trent Central sits entirely within Stoke-on-Trent Council. Stoke-on-Trent was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Stoke-on-Trent | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 May 2025 | Birches Head & Northwood | Ref GAIN from Lab | Ref 58% Lab 21% Other 16% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbey Hulton | Labour 43.3%vs Reform 24.9% | 2023 Labour 50.1%vs Independent 31.8% | - | 17.1% |
| Basford & Hartshill | Labour 44.2%vs Reform 23.6% | 2023 Labour 82.7%vs Conservative 17.3% | - | 25.6% |
| Bentilee, Ubberley & Townsend | Labour 43.2%vs Reform 26.2% | 2023 Labour 61.1%vs Others 20.1% | - | 15.8% |
| Birches Head & Northwood | Labour 43.0%vs Reform 24.6% | 2023 Labour 45.5%vs Others 30.6% | - | 26.4% |
| Boothen | Labour 44.6%vs Reform 24.4% | 2023 Labour 66.8%vs Conservative 12.7% | - | 24.6% |
| Bucknall & Eaton Park | Labour 41.2%vs Reform 25.3% | 2023 Conservative 49.7%vs Labour 46.5% | - | 29.6% |
| Etruria & Hanley | Labour 43.7%vs Reform 21.0% | 2023 Labour 56.0%vs Independent 26.6% | - | 29.1% |
| Fenton East | Labour 42.1%vs Reform 25.4% | 2023 Labour 47.5%vs Independent 31.5% | - | 24.0% |
| Fenton West & Mount Pleasant | Labour 42.0%vs Reform 25.7% | 2023 Labour 47.4%vs Independent 27.0% | - | 27.4% |
| Hanley Park, Joiner's Square & Shelton | Labour 44.3%vs Reform 22.7% | 2023 Labour 59.6%vs Conservative 29.1% | - | 28.6% |
| Hartshill Park & Stoke | Labour 43.9%vs Reform 24.5% | 2023 Labour 68.2%vs Conservative 26.2% | - | 24.9% |
| Longton & Meir Hay South | Labour 40.1%vs Conservative 30.1% | 2023 Labour 55.5%vs Conservative 44.5% | - | 26.8% |
| Meir Hay North, Parkhall & Weston Coyney | Labour 32.8%vs Conservative 29.7% | 2023 Conservative 61.8%vs Labour 38.2% | - | 23.9% |
| Moorcroft & Sneyd Green | Labour 39.9%vs Conservative 20.4% | 2023 Labour 48.1%vs Others 26.0% | - | 30.0% |
| Penkhull & Springfields | Labour 43.1%vs Reform 24.1% | 2023 Labour 55.9%vs Conservative 37.1% | - | 29.9% |
| Sandford Hill | Labour 41.6%vs Reform 26.2% | 2023 Labour 59.0%vs Conservative 41.0% | - | 22.6% |
| Trent Vale & Oak Hill | Labour 42.6%vs Reform 24.5% | 2023 Labour 52.7%vs Independent 47.3% | - | 26.9% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Stoke-on-Trent Central at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Stoke-on-Trent Central at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Tristram Hunt | 38.8% | 21.0% | 21.7% | 5,566 | 53.2% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Tristram Hunt | 39.3% | 22.5% | 4.2% | 5,179 | 51.3%-1.9 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Gareth Snell | 51.5% | 39.8% | 2.1% | 3,897 | 58.2%+6.9 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Jo Gideon 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 42.9% | 47.1% | 3.8% | 1,715 | 57.6%-0.6 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Gareth Snell | 42.4% | 17.6% | 2.8% | 6,409 | 47.8%-9.8 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Stoke-on-Trent Central
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Stoke-on-Trent Central. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Owner-occupied50.9 / 49.1vs 61.9
- ↑Leave64.8 / 63.0vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.3 / 24.7vs 33.7
- ↓Graduate22.3 / 23.5vs 33.7
- ↑Leave64.8 / 61.8vs 53.2
- ↑Social rent23.8 / 22.5vs 16.8
- ↑Leave64.8 / 64.0vs 53.2
- ↓Owner-occupied50.9 / 51.2vs 61.9
- ↑Under 3536.2 / 36.5vs 30.2
- ↓Graduate22.3 / 21.5vs 33.7
- ↑Leave64.8 / 68.3vs 53.2
- ↑No quals25.6 / 26.1vs 18.0
- ↑Leave64.8 / 66.2vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.3 / 24.1vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied50.9 / 56.6vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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