Stoke-on-Trent Central
West Midlands · Borough constituency · Stoke-on-Trent
About the Stoke-on-Trent Central constituency
Stoke-on-Trent Central is a borough constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Gareth Snell (Labour (Co-op)), MP since July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 42.4% to 24.2% for Reform UK, a majority of 6,409 votes on a 47.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 41.2% and Reform UK on 36.5%, a margin of 4.8 points.
Who lives in Stoke-on-Trent Central? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Stoke-on-Trent Central vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Stoke-on-Trent Central
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Stoke-on-Trent Central within Stoke-on-Trent
Stoke-on-Trent Central sits entirely within Stoke-on-Trent Council. Stoke-on-Trent was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Stoke-on-Trent | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 May 2025 | Birches Head & Northwood | Ref GAIN from Lab | Ref 58% Lab 21% Other 16% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent result with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbey Hulton | Labour 43.3%vs Reform 24.9% | 2023 Labour 50.1%vs Independent 31.8% | - | 17.1% |
| Basford & Hartshill | Labour 44.2%vs Reform 23.6% | 2023 Labour 82.7%vs Conservative 17.3% | - | 25.6% |
| Bentilee, Ubberley & Townsend | Labour 43.2%vs Reform 26.2% | 2023 Labour 61.1%vs Others 20.1% | - | 15.8% |
| Birches Head & Northwood | Labour 43.0%vs Reform 24.6% | 2023 Labour 45.5%vs Others 30.6% | - | 26.4% |
| Boothen | Labour 44.6%vs Reform 24.4% | 2023 Labour 66.8%vs Conservative 12.7% | - | 24.6% |
| Bucknall & Eaton Park | Labour 41.2%vs Reform 25.3% | 2023 Conservative 49.7%vs Labour 46.5% | - | 29.6% |
| Etruria & Hanley | Labour 43.7%vs Reform 21.0% | 2023 Labour 56.0%vs Independent 26.6% | - | 29.1% |
| Fenton East | Labour 42.1%vs Reform 25.4% | 2023 Labour 47.5%vs Independent 31.5% | - | 24.0% |
| Fenton West & Mount Pleasant | Labour 42.0%vs Reform 25.7% | 2023 Labour 47.4%vs Independent 27.0% | - | 27.4% |
| Hanley Park, Joiner's Square & Shelton | Labour 44.3%vs Reform 22.7% | 2023 Labour 59.6%vs Conservative 29.1% | - | 28.6% |
| Hartshill Park & Stoke | Labour 43.9%vs Reform 24.5% | 2023 Labour 68.2%vs Conservative 26.2% | - | 24.9% |
| Longton & Meir Hay South | Labour 40.1%vs Conservative 30.1% | 2023 Labour 55.5%vs Conservative 44.5% | - | 26.8% |
| Meir Hay North, Parkhall & Weston Coyney | Labour 32.8%vs Conservative 29.7% | 2023 Conservative 61.8%vs Labour 38.2% | - | 23.9% |
| Moorcroft & Sneyd Green | Labour 39.9%vs Conservative 20.4% | 2023 Labour 48.1%vs Others 26.0% | - | 30.0% |
| Penkhull & Springfields | Labour 43.1%vs Reform 24.1% | 2023 Labour 55.9%vs Conservative 37.1% | - | 29.9% |
| Sandford Hill | Labour 41.6%vs Reform 26.2% | 2023 Labour 59.0%vs Conservative 41.0% | - | 22.6% |
| Trent Vale & Oak Hill | Labour 42.6%vs Reform 24.5% | 2023 Labour 52.7%vs Independent 47.3% | - | 26.9% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Stoke-on-Trent Central at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Stoke-on-Trent Central at past elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Tristram Hunt | 38.8% | 21.0% | 21.7% | 5,566 | 53.2% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Tristram Hunt | 39.3% | 22.5% | 4.2% | 5,179 | 51.3%-1.9 |
| 2017by-election | Lab hold | Gareth Snell | 37.1% | 24.3% | 9.8% | 2,620 | 38.1% |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Gareth Snell | 51.5% | 39.8% | 2.1% | 3,897 | 58.2%+6.9 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Jo Gideon 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 42.9% | 47.1% | 3.8% | 1,715 | 57.6%-0.6 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Gareth Snell | 42.4% | 17.6% | 2.8% | 6,409 | 47.8%-9.8 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced. By-elections are on the boundaries in force at the time and usually have much lower turnout than a general election.
Constituencies most like Stoke-on-Trent Central
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Stoke-on-Trent Central. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Owner-occupied50.9 / 49.1vs 61.9
- ↑Leave64.8 / 63.0vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.3 / 24.7vs 33.7
- ↓Graduate22.3 / 23.5vs 33.7
- ↑Leave64.8 / 61.8vs 53.2
- ↑Social rent23.8 / 22.5vs 16.8
- ↑Leave64.8 / 64.0vs 53.2
- ↓Owner-occupied50.9 / 51.2vs 61.9
- ↑Under 3536.2 / 36.5vs 30.2
- ↓Graduate22.3 / 21.5vs 33.7
- ↑Leave64.8 / 68.3vs 53.2
- ↑No quals25.6 / 26.1vs 18.0
- ↑Leave64.8 / 66.2vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.3 / 24.1vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied50.9 / 56.6vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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