Constituency profile

Stoke-on-Trent Central

West Midlands · Borough constituency · Stoke-on-Trent

Gareth Snell MP
Sitting MP

Gareth Snell

Labour (Co-op)

MP since July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
West Midlands
Borough constituency, Stoke-on-Trent council
Last 5 GE winners
LLLCL
Labour 4/5, Conservative 1/5
EU referendum 2016
64.8% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +12.9pp above mean
Current outlook
Labour +4.8pp
vs Reform UK 36.5%
MidlandsStrong Leave areaWorking-class profile

About the Stoke-on-Trent Central constituency

Stoke-on-Trent Central is a borough constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Gareth Snell (Labour (Co-op)), MP since July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 42.4% to 24.2% for Reform UK, a majority of 6,409 votes on a 47.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 41.2% and Reform UK on 36.5%, a margin of 4.8 points.

Who lives in Stoke-on-Trent Central? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
64.8%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
22.3%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
25.6%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
50.9%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
48.3%
UK average ~36%
Median age
36.3
UK median ~40
Age 65+
18.4%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
36.2%
UK average ~28%

How did Stoke-on-Trent Central vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 6,409 votes (18.2pp) · turnout 47.8%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Stoke-on-Trent Central

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Stoke-on-Trent Central within Stoke-on-Trent

Stoke-on-Trent Central sits entirely within Stoke-on-Trent Council. Stoke-on-Trent was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results with vote counts available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Stoke-on-Trent
73 LSOAs
100%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
15 May 2025Birches Head & Northwood
Stoke-on-Trent
Ref GAIN from LabRef 58% Lab 21% Other 16%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent result with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Abbey HultonLabour 43.3%vs Reform 24.9%2023 Labour 50.1%vs Independent 31.8%-17.1%
Basford & HartshillLabour 44.2%vs Reform 23.6%2023 Labour 82.7%vs Conservative 17.3%-25.6%
Bentilee, Ubberley & TownsendLabour 43.2%vs Reform 26.2%2023 Labour 61.1%vs Others 20.1%-15.8%
Birches Head & NorthwoodLabour 43.0%vs Reform 24.6%2023 Labour 45.5%vs Others 30.6%-26.4%
BoothenLabour 44.6%vs Reform 24.4%2023 Labour 66.8%vs Conservative 12.7%-24.6%
Bucknall & Eaton ParkLabour 41.2%vs Reform 25.3%2023 Conservative 49.7%vs Labour 46.5%-29.6%
Etruria & HanleyLabour 43.7%vs Reform 21.0%2023 Labour 56.0%vs Independent 26.6%-29.1%
Fenton EastLabour 42.1%vs Reform 25.4%2023 Labour 47.5%vs Independent 31.5%-24.0%
Fenton West & Mount PleasantLabour 42.0%vs Reform 25.7%2023 Labour 47.4%vs Independent 27.0%-27.4%
Hanley Park, Joiner's Square & SheltonLabour 44.3%vs Reform 22.7%2023 Labour 59.6%vs Conservative 29.1%-28.6%
Hartshill Park & StokeLabour 43.9%vs Reform 24.5%2023 Labour 68.2%vs Conservative 26.2%-24.9%
Longton & Meir Hay SouthLabour 40.1%vs Conservative 30.1%2023 Labour 55.5%vs Conservative 44.5%-26.8%
Meir Hay North, Parkhall & Weston CoyneyLabour 32.8%vs Conservative 29.7%2023 Conservative 61.8%vs Labour 38.2%-23.9%
Moorcroft & Sneyd GreenLabour 39.9%vs Conservative 20.4%2023 Labour 48.1%vs Others 26.0%-30.0%
Penkhull & SpringfieldsLabour 43.1%vs Reform 24.1%2023 Labour 55.9%vs Conservative 37.1%-29.9%
Sandford HillLabour 41.6%vs Reform 26.2%2023 Labour 59.0%vs Conservative 41.0%-22.6%
Trent Vale & Oak HillLabour 42.6%vs Reform 24.5%2023 Labour 52.7%vs Independent 47.3%-26.9%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Stoke-on-Trent Central at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Stoke-on-Trent Central at past elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Lab holdTristram Hunt38.8%21.0%21.7%4.3% UKIP-14.1%5,56653.2%
2015Lab holdTristram Hunt39.3%22.5%4.2%22.7% UKIP3.6%7.7%5,17951.3%-1.9
2017by-electionLab holdGareth Snell37.1%24.3%9.8%24.7% UKIP1.4%2.6%2,62038.1%
2017Lab holdGareth Snell51.5%39.8%2.1%4.9% UKIP1.1%0.6%3,89758.2%+6.9
2019notionalConservative winnerJo Gideon 2019 MP, pre-review boundary42.9%47.1%3.8%4.3% Brx2.0%-1,71557.6%-0.6
2024Lab gain from ConGareth Snell42.4%17.6%2.8%24.2% Ref4.8%8.1%6,40947.8%-9.8

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced. By-elections are on the boundaries in force at the time and usually have much lower turnout than a general election.

Constituencies most like Stoke-on-Trent Central

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Stoke-on-Trent Central. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.

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