Middlesbrough and Thornaby East
North East · Borough constituency
About the Middlesbrough and Thornaby East constituency
Middlesbrough and Thornaby East is a borough constituency in the North East. The sitting MP is Andy McDonald (Labour), first elected in November 2012. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 47.2% to 20.5% for Reform UK, a majority of 9,192 votes on a 45.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 40.8% and Reform UK on 23.4%, a margin of 17.5 points.
Who lives in Middlesbrough and Thornaby East? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Middlesbrough and Thornaby East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Middlesbrough and Thornaby East
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Middlesbrough and Thornaby East within Middlesbrough and Stockton-on-Tees
Middlesbrough and Thornaby East crosses council boundaries: Middlesbrough (84%), Stockton-on-Tees (16%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 84% |
| Stockton-on-Tees | 16% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jul 2024 | Acklam | Lab HOLD | — |
| 19 Jul 2024 | Central | Lab HOLD | — |
| 18 Aug 2023 | Ayresome | Ind GAIN from Lab | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acklam | Labour 46.3%vs Conservative 22.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 44.9%vs Labour 36.1% | - | 43.8% |
| Ayresome | Labour 46.1%vs Reform 20.4% | 2023 Labour 60.9%vs Independent 19.6% | - | 30.8% |
| Berwick Hills & Pallister | Labour 41.8%vs Reform 27.4% | 2023 Labour 51.7%vs Independent 44.7% | - | 16.3% |
| Brambles & Thorntree | Labour 42.2%vs Reform 28.3% | 2023 Labour 52.8%vs Independent 40.0% | - | 14.4% |
| Central | Labour 53.3%vs Reform 20.0% | 2023 Labour 77.0%vs Independent 8.9% | - | 25.0% |
| Kader | Labour 36.9%vs Conservative 26.8% | 2023 Independent 57.0%vs Labour 18.3% | - | 45.5% |
| Linthorpe | Labour 53.3%vs Reform 17.0% | 2023 Labour 67.1%vs Independent 20.0% | - | 39.2% |
| Longlands & Beechwood | Labour 42.2%vs Reform 26.6% | 2023 Labour 53.1%vs Independent 34.5% | - | 21.7% |
| Mandale & Victoria | Labour 51.9%vs Conservative 19.5% | 2023 Labour 46.7%vs Others 34.5% | - | 28.6% |
| Newport | Labour 50.2%vs Reform 22.2% | 2023 Labour 77.2%vs Independent 9.4% | - | 26.9% |
| North Ormesby | Labour 43.7%vs Reform 26.2% | 2023 Labour 54.1%vs Independent 38.9% | - | 21.8% |
| Park | Labour 51.4%vs Conservative 18.2% | 2023 Labour 65.3%vs Independent 22.6% | - | 34.7% |
| Stainsby Hill | Labour 47.7%vs Conservative 22.4% | 2023 Others 58.9%vs Labour 26.4% | - | 28.5% |
| Trimdon | Labour 48.3%vs Reform 18.5% | 2023 Independent 52.9%vs Labour 37.2% | - | 29.0% |
| Village | Labour 42.6%vs Conservative 32.5% | 2023 Others 55.2%vs Conservative 23.9% | - | 27.7% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Middlesbrough and Thornaby East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Middlesbrough and Thornaby East at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | Stuart Bell Middlesbrough MP | 45.9% | 18.8% | 19.9% | 8,689 | 51.4% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab hold | Andy McDonald Middlesbrough MP | 56.8% | 16.5% | 3.7% | 12,477 | 52.9%+1.5 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | Andy McDonald Middlesbrough MP | 65.7% | 26.7% | 1.0% | 13,873 | 58.4%+5.5 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Andy McDonald Middlesbrough MP, pre-review boundary | 54.0% | 24.3% | 2.6% | 11,141 | 52.4% |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Andy McDonald | 47.2% | 17.9% | 3.0% | 9,192 | 45.8%-6.6 |
Middlesbrough and Thornaby East was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Middlesbrough (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Middlesbrough and Thornaby East
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Middlesbrough and Thornaby East. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Owner-occupied49.1 / 50.9vs 61.9
- ↑Leave63.0 / 64.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.7 / 22.3vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied49.1 / 51.2vs 61.9
- ↑Leave63.0 / 64.0vs 53.2
- ↑Under 3536.7 / 36.5vs 30.2
- ↑Leave63.0 / 68.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.7 / 21.5vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent24.7 / 26.2vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate24.7 / 23.5vs 33.7
- ↑Leave63.0 / 61.8vs 53.2
- ↑Social rent24.7 / 22.5vs 16.8
- ↑Leave63.0 / 61.4vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.7 / 25.9vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent24.7 / 26.5vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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