Bournemouth West
South West · Borough constituency · Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole borough
About the Bournemouth West constituency
Bournemouth West is a borough constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Jessica Toale (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 36.4% to 28.3% for the Conservatives, a majority of 3,224 votes on a 56.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 32.0% and Labour on 27.8%, a margin of 4.2 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Bournemouth West? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Bournemouth West vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Bournemouth West
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Bournemouth West within Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole
Bournemouth West sits entirely within Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council. Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep 2025 | Talbot & Branksome Woods | LD GAIN from Con | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alderney & Bourne Valley | Labour 36.8%vs Conservative 25.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 46.9%vs Labour 23.8% | - | 28.7% |
| Bournemouth Central | Labour 38.9%vs Conservative 26.3% | 2023 Conservative 31.8%vs Labour 29.0% | - | 24.7% |
| Kinson | Labour 40.8%vs Conservative 29.3% | 2023 Conservative 37.1%vs Labour 36.3% | - | 24.3% |
| Redhill & Northbourne | Labour 35.4%vs Conservative 31.9% | 2023 Independent 39.0%vs Conservative 25.8% | - | 30.7% |
| Talbot & Branksome Woods | Labour 32.0%vs Conservative 31.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 39.2%vs Conservative 38.9% | - | 31.4% |
| Wallisdown & Winton West | Labour 34.8%vs Conservative 27.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 52.5%vs Conservative 22.8% | - | 28.8% |
| Westbourne & West Cliff | Labour 34.1%vs Conservative 30.0% | 2023 Conservative 41.6%vs Lib Dem 30.0% | - | 31.8% |
| Winton East | Labour 36.3%vs Conservative 22.4% | 2023 Green 67.1%vs Conservative 15.8% | - | 26.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Bournemouth West at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Bournemouth West at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Conor Burns | 14.8% | 45.1% | 31.7% | 5,583 | 58.1% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Conor Burns | 17.7% | 48.2% | 7.9% | 12,410 | 58.0%-0.1 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Conor Burns | 36.2% | 53.5% | 6.6% | 7,711 | 60.8%+2.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Conor Burns 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 31.8% | 53.6% | 10.1% | 9,941 | 63.5%+2.7 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Jessica Toale | 36.4% | 28.3% | 10.9% | 3,224 | 56.1%-7.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Bournemouth West
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bournemouth West. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Under 3537.9 / 41.5vs 30.2
- ↓Owner-occupied55.1 / 52.9vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent31.5 / 26.4vs 20.2
- ↑Private rent31.5 / 33.2vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied55.1 / 57.1vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent12.8 / 9.1vs 16.8
- ↑Under 3537.9 / 35.9vs 30.2
- ↑Private rent31.5 / 26.5vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied55.1 / 57.3vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent31.5 / 34.9vs 20.2
- ↑Under 3537.9 / 41.2vs 30.2
- ↓Owner-occupied55.1 / 45.1vs 61.9
- ↓Owner-occupied55.1 / 55.3vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent31.5 / 27.3vs 20.2
- ↑Leave57.7 / 64.3vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.