Colchester
East of England · Borough constituency · Colchester borough
About the Colchester constituency
Colchester is a borough constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Pam Cox (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 41.9% to 23.5% for the Conservatives, a majority of 8,250 votes on a 57.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 27.7% and Labour on 27.0%, a margin of 0.6 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Colchester? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Colchester vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Colchester
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Colchester within Colchester
Colchester sits entirely within Colchester Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. In addition, the Essex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Colchester | 100% | View projection › |
Essex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colchester Abbey | Lab | Lab 36% Ref 27% Grn 22% | 36.7% |
| Colchester Lexden | Con | Con 38% Ref 22% Lab 15% | 48.2% |
| Colchester Maypole | Ref | Ref 34% Lab 31% LD 15% | 32.8% |
| Colchester North | LD | LD 35% Ref 22% Grn 22% | 38.4% |
| Colchester St Johns | Ref | Ref 34% LD 30% Con 13% | 40.5% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berechurch | Labour 58.0%vs Conservative 16.9% | May 2026 Labour 37.7%vs Reform 37.5% | Labour share -20.3pp | - |
| Castle | Labour 38.1%vs Conservative 23.0% | May 2026 Green 43.9%vs Reform 20.2% | Labour→Green +28.5pp | - |
| Greenstead | Labour 52.6%vs Conservative 18.4% | May 2026 Reform 35.0%vs Labour 30.4% | Labour→Reform +21.2pp | - |
| Highwoods | Labour 41.4%vs Conservative 22.8% | May 2026 Reform 28.2%vs Lib Dem 24.4% | Labour→Reform +15.2pp | - |
| Lexden and Braiswick | Conservative 43.0%vs Labour 25.4% | May 2026 Conservative 45.0%vs Reform 25.2% | Conservative share +2.0pp | - |
| Mile End | Labour 36.0%vs Lib Dem 22.5% | May 2026 Lib Dem 50.4%vs Reform 21.1% | Labour→Lib Dem +28.5pp | - |
| New Town and Christ Church | Labour 49.1%vs Conservative 18.6% | May 2026 Labour 32.4%vs Green 23.3% | Labour share -16.7pp | - |
| Prettygate | Conservative 35.2%vs Labour 31.0% | May 2026 Conservative 36.5%vs Reform 24.8% | Conservative share +1.3pp | - |
| Shrub End | Labour 40.9%vs Conservative 22.7% | May 2026 Reform 34.0%vs Lib Dem 30.8% | Labour→Reform +23.5pp | - |
| St Anne's and St John's | Labour 31.5%vs Conservative 28.5% | May 2026 Lib Dem 46.8%vs Reform 35.9% | Labour→Lib Dem +25.6pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Colchester at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Colchester at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | LD hold | Bob Russell | 12.3% | 32.9% | 48.0% | 6,982 | 62.3% |
| 2015 | Con gain from LD | Will Quince | 16.2% | 38.9% | 27.5% | 5,575 | 65.5%+3.2 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Will Quince | 35.3% | 45.9% | 17.0% | 5,677 | 66.9%+1.4 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Will Quince 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 30.1% | 52.3% | 14.7% | 10,940 | 63.9%-3.0 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Pam Cox | 41.9% | 23.5% | 14.2% | 8,250 | 57.1%-6.8 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Colchester
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Colchester. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Under 3535.9 / 35.4vs 30.2
- ↓Age 65+17.8 / 18.8vs 22.7
- ↑Under 3535.9 / 34.8vs 30.2
- ↓Owner-occupied57.3 / 58.2vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+17.8 / 20.4vs 22.7
- ↑Under 3535.9 / 32.6vs 30.2
- ↓Owner-occupied57.3 / 57.5vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+17.8 / 18.8vs 22.7
- ↑Under 3535.9 / 33.6vs 30.2
- ↓Age 65+17.8 / 18.5vs 22.7
- ↓Owner-occupied57.3 / 59.0vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.