Bristol North East
South West · Borough constituency
About the Bristol North East constituency
Bristol North East is a borough constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Damien Egan (Labour), first elected in February 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 45.3% to 18.7% for the Greens, a majority of 11,167 votes on a 59.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 35.4% and the Greens on 24.8%, a margin of 10.6 points.
Who lives in Bristol North East? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Bristol North East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Bristol North East
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Bristol North East within Bristol, City of and South Gloucestershire
Bristol North East crosses council boundaries: Bristol, City of (52%), South Gloucestershire (48%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Bristol, City of | 52% |
| South Gloucestershire | 48% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2024 | Kingswood | Lab HOLD | — |
| 9 May 2024 | New Cheltenham | Lab HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastville | Labour 47.4%vs Green 23.6% | 2024 Green 53.5%vs Labour 34.6% | - | 40.9% |
| Frome Vale | Labour 47.3%vs Conservative 16.9% | 2024 Labour 46.5%vs Green 27.6% | - | 32.5% |
| Hillfields | Labour 48.9%vs Green 16.4% | 2024 Labour 51.0%vs Green 28.1% | - | 26.3% |
| Kingswood | Labour 41.1%vs Green 17.6% | 2023 Labour 58.8%vs Conservative 27.9% | - | 24.8% |
| Lockleaze | Labour 45.5%vs Green 24.4% | 2024 Green 53.4%vs Labour 33.2% | - | 32.6% |
| New Cheltenham | Labour 41.7%vs Conservative 18.4% | 2023 Labour 54.1%vs Conservative 35.5% | - | 27.4% |
| Staple Hill & Mangotsfield | Labour 45.6%vs Green 17.2% | 2023 Labour 70.4%vs Conservative 21.1% | - | 31.8% |
| Woodstock | Labour 41.0%vs Green 16.9% | 2023 Labour 55.7%vs Conservative 28.9% | - | 24.5% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Bristol North East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Bristol North East at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | Kerry McCarthy Bristol East MP | 36.6% | 28.3% | 24.4% | 3,722 | 64.8% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab hold | Kerry McCarthy Bristol East MP | 39.3% | 30.7% | 5.8% | 3,980 | 64.9%+0.1 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | Kerry McCarthy Bristol East MP | 60.7% | 34.4% | 2.7% | 13,394 | 70.1%+5.2 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Kerry McCarthy Bristol East MP, pre-review boundary | 50.3% | 39.1% | 5.1% | 5,464 | 70.1% |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Damien Egan | 45.3% | 14.8% | 4.7% | 11,167 | 59.9%-10.2 |
Bristol North East was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Bristol East (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Bristol North East
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bristol North East. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave48.6 / 49.3vs 53.2
- ↑Under 3535.4 / 33.6vs 30.2
- ↑Under 3535.4 / 34.8vs 30.2
- ↓Leave48.6 / 46.8vs 53.2
- ↑Under 3535.4 / 35.9vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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