Bournemouth East
South West · Borough constituency · Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole borough
About the Bournemouth East constituency
Bournemouth East is a borough constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Tom Hayes (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 40.8% to 28.6% for the Conservatives, a majority of 5,479 votes on a 62.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 31.9% and Reform UK on 28.1%, a margin of 3.8 points.
Who lives in Bournemouth East? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Bournemouth East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Bournemouth East
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Bournemouth East within Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole
Bournemouth East sits entirely within Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council. Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2024 | Muscliff & Strouden Park | Con GAIN from Ind | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boscombe East & Pokesdown | Labour 52.4%vs Conservative 22.9% | 2023 Labour 57.7%vs Conservative 15.5% | - | 37.0% |
| Boscombe West | Labour 44.4%vs Conservative 23.9% | 2023 Labour 38.9%vs Conservative 32.1% | - | 24.7% |
| East Cliff & Springbourne | Labour 43.1%vs Conservative 25.0% | 2023 Labour 33.1%vs Conservative 30.7% | - | 24.6% |
| East Southbourne & Tuckton | Conservative 36.1%vs Labour 31.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 54.8%vs Conservative 30.7% | - | 44.0% |
| Littledown & Iford | Labour 35.6%vs Conservative 33.6% | 2023 Conservative 40.2%vs Lib Dem 30.2% | - | 35.3% |
| Moordown | Labour 39.0%vs Conservative 30.9% | 2023 Green 46.0%vs Conservative 26.9% | - | 31.1% |
| Muscliff & Strouden Park | Labour 36.8%vs Conservative 29.7% | 2023 Independent 47.8%vs Conservative 25.9% | - | 21.4% |
| Queen's Park | Labour 40.9%vs Conservative 31.6% | 2023 Green 32.4%vs Conservative 30.3% | - | 33.4% |
| West Southbourne | Labour 44.2%vs Conservative 24.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 44.7%vs Labour 34.1% | - | 38.8% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Bournemouth East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Bournemouth East at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Tobias Ellwood | 13.3% | 48.4% | 30.9% | 7,728 | 61.9% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Tobias Ellwood | 16.6% | 49.2% | 8.4% | 14,612 | 62.0%+0.1 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Tobias Ellwood | 35.6% | 51.9% | 6.5% | 7,937 | 65.2%+3.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Tobias Ellwood 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 32.7% | 50.6% | 11.0% | 8,817 | 67.4%+2.2 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Tom Hayes | 40.8% | 28.6% | 6.9% | 5,479 | 62.1%-5.3 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Bournemouth East
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bournemouth East. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Private rent33.2 / 31.5vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied57.1 / 55.1vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent9.1 / 12.8vs 16.8
- ↑Private rent33.2 / 26.5vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied57.1 / 57.3vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent33.2 / 22.6vs 20.2
- ↑Private rent33.2 / 26.5vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied57.1 / 58.9vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent9.1 / 14.1vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.