Canterbury
South East · County constituency · Canterbury borough
About the Canterbury constituency
Canterbury is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Rosie Duffield (Independent), first elected in June 2017. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 41.4% to 23.0% for the Conservatives, a majority of 8,653 votes on a 66.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 36.0% and Reform UK on 23.7%, a margin of 12.3 points.
Who lives in Canterbury? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Canterbury vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Canterbury
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Canterbury within Canterbury
Canterbury sits entirely within Canterbury Council. Canterbury was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Canterbury | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2025 | Wincheap | Grn GAIN from LD | Grn 39% LD 24% Ref 16% |
| 7 Mar 2025 | Gorrell | Grn HOLD | — |
| 7 Mar 2025 | St Stephen's | Lab HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barton | Labour 46.9%vs Conservative 19.8% | 2023 Labour 51.9%vs Conservative 23.6% | - | 40.1% |
| Blean Forest | Labour 37.6%vs Conservative 23.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 56.1%vs Labour 21.0% | - | 52.6% |
| Chartham & Stone Street | Labour 42.4%vs Conservative 28.8% | 2023 Labour 49.3%vs Conservative 24.6% | - | 45.7% |
| Chestfield | Conservative 33.0%vs Labour 30.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 56.9%vs Conservative 23.6% | - | 46.0% |
| Gorrell | Labour 44.7%vs Conservative 18.6% | 2023 Green 45.9%vs Labour 41.8% | - | 50.0% |
| Little Stour & Adisham | Labour 30.6%vs Conservative 29.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 72.0%vs Conservative 19.2% | - | 49.8% |
| Nailbourne | Conservative 31.6%vs Labour 28.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 84.0%vs Conservative 10.6% | - | 50.9% |
| Northgate | Labour 49.5%vs Reform 16.9% | 2023 Labour 66.6%vs Conservative 15.5% | - | 31.4% |
| Seasalter | Labour 36.9%vs Conservative 28.7% | 2023 Labour 35.6%vs Independent 32.8% | - | 41.3% |
| St Stephen's | Labour 46.7%vs Conservative 18.9% | 2023 Labour 59.6%vs Lib Dem 17.5% | - | 44.9% |
| Swalecliffe | Labour 33.7%vs Conservative 29.2% | 2023 Green 55.3%vs Conservative 26.6% | - | 43.0% |
| Tankerton | Labour 39.4%vs Conservative 25.6% | 2023 Labour 48.8%vs Conservative 38.4% | - | 51.1% |
| Westgate | Labour 46.9%vs Reform 16.2% | 2023 Labour 44.1%vs Lib Dem 39.0% | - | 45.9% |
| Wincheap | Labour 45.9%vs Conservative 16.5% | 2023 Labour 40.3%vs Lib Dem 40.3% | - | 41.6% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Canterbury at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Canterbury at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Julian Brazier | 16.1% | 44.8% | 32.5% | 6,048 | 66.4% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Julian Brazier | 24.5% | 42.9% | 11.6% | 9,798 | 65.7%-0.7 |
| 2017 | Lab gain from Con | Rosie Duffield | 45.0% | 44.7% | 8.0% | 187 | 72.7%+7.0 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Rosemary Duffield 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 48.6% | 44.8% | 5.7% | 2,160 | 75.7%+3.0 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Rosie Duffield | 41.4% | 23.0% | 8.1% | 8,653 | 66.4%-9.3 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Canterbury
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Canterbury. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Under 3538.2 / 39.5vs 30.2
- ↓Employed48.6 / 51.1vs 57.3
- ↓No quals14.0 / 14.3vs 18.0
- ↓Employed48.6 / 46.1vs 57.3
- ↓Leave45.3 / 43.3vs 53.2
- ↑Under 3538.2 / 37.1vs 30.2
- ↓Employed48.6 / 51.1vs 57.3
- ↑Under 3538.2 / 36.0vs 30.2
- ↓No quals14.0 / 14.9vs 18.0
- ↓No quals14.0 / 14.6vs 18.0
- ↓Leave45.3 / 50.3vs 53.2
- ↓Employed48.6 / 54.9vs 57.3
- ↓Leave45.3 / 44.8vs 53.2
- ↑Under 3538.2 / 43.9vs 30.2
- ↓Employed48.6 / 51.5vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.