Constituency profile

City of Durham

North East · County constituency · County Durham borough

Mary Kelly Foy MP
Sitting MP

Mary Kelly Foy

Labour

First elected December 2019

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
North East
County constituency, County Durham council
Last 5 GE winners
LLLLL
Labour 5/5
EU referendum 2016
43.3% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -8.6pp below mean
Current outlook
Labour +10.2pp
vs Reform UK 26.6%
NorthernRemain-leaning

About the City of Durham constituency

City of Durham is a county constituency in the North East. The sitting MP is Mary Kelly Foy (Labour), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 47.1% to 18.1% for Reform UK, a majority of 11,757 votes on a 57.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 36.8% and Reform UK on 26.6%, a margin of 10.2 points.

Who lives in City of Durham? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
43.3%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
32.8%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
15.8%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
62.7%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
36.9%
UK average ~36%
Median age
38.8
UK median ~40
Age 65+
22.2%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
37.1%
UK average ~28%

How did City of Durham vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 11,757 votes (29.0pp) · turnout 57.6%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of City of Durham

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

City of Durham within County Durham

City of Durham sits entirely within County Durham Council. County Durham was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
County Durham
60 LSOAs
100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
BelmontLabour 49.5%vs Reform 17.7%No council data--
BrandonLabour 50.6%vs Reform 19.1%No council data--
DeernessLabour 51.4%vs Reform 18.9%No council data--
Durham SouthLabour 45.9%vs Lib Dem 18.2%No council data--
Elvet and GilesgateLabour 49.5%vs Lib Dem 17.5%No council data--
Esh and Witton GilbertLabour 42.8%vs Reform 18.9%No council data--
Framwellgate and Newton HallLabour 42.9%vs Reform 19.0%No council data--
Neville's CrossLabour 42.6%vs Lib Dem 19.4%No council data--
SherburnLabour 48.8%vs Reform 18.9%No council data--
Willington and HunwickLabour 46.0%vs Reform 19.5%No council data--

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for City of Durham at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won City of Durham at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Lab holdRoberta Blackman-Woods44.3%13.3%37.7%1.9% UKIP-2.9%3,06767.2%
2015Lab holdRoberta Blackman-Woods47.3%22.2%11.3%11.5% UKIP5.9%1.8%11,43966.5%-0.7
2017Lab holdRoberta Blackman-Woods55.4%29.8%9.9%2.3% UKIP1.6%0.9%12,36467.9%+1.4
2019notionalLabour winnerMary Foy 2019 MP, pre-review boundary40.9%31.9%16.9%-3.3%7.0%4,65770.4%+2.5
2024Lab holdMary Foy47.1%12.9%14.6%18.2% Ref6.9%0.4%11,75757.6%-12.8

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like City of Durham

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to City of Durham. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.