Lancaster and Wyre
North West · County constituency
About the Lancaster and Wyre constituency
Lancaster and Wyre is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Cat Smith (Labour), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 44.9% to 23.4% for the Conservatives, a majority of 9,253 votes on a 57.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 37.7% and Reform UK on 24.1%, a margin of 13.6 points.
Who lives in Lancaster and Wyre? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Lancaster and Wyre vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Lancaster and Wyre
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Lancaster and Wyre within Lancaster and Wyre
Lancaster and Wyre crosses council boundaries: Lancaster (67%), Wyre (33%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Lancaster | 67% |
| Wyre | 33% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 May 2026 | Castle | Grn HOLD | Grn 70% Lab 16% Ref 11% |
| 1 May 2025 | John O'Gaunt | Grn HOLD | Grn 55% Lab 29% LD 14% |
| 9 Oct 2024 | Scotforth East | Grn GAIN from Lab | — |
| 19 Jul 2024 | University | Grn GAIN from Lab | — |
| 16 Mar 2024 | Castle | Grn HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowerham | Labour 51.8%vs Conservative 17.0% | 2023 Green 50.1%vs Labour 40.1% | - | 37.9% |
| Brock with Catterall | Labour 36.1%vs Conservative 29.4% | 2023 Conservative 70.3%vs Labour 29.6% | - | 33.8% |
| Bulk | Labour 50.4%vs Green 16.2% | 2023 Green 60.5%vs Labour 32.0% | - | 30.2% |
| Calder | Labour 36.3%vs Conservative 29.1% | 2023 Conservative 54.7%vs Labour 45.3% | - | 35.4% |
| Castle | Labour 47.8%vs Green 18.7% | 2023 Green 60.7%vs Labour 30.3% | - | 25.2% |
| Ellel | Labour 39.0%vs Conservative 33.5% | 2023 Green 54.0%vs Conservative 26.9% | - | 43.2% |
| Garstang | Labour 36.9%vs Conservative 30.4% | 2023 Conservative 57.8%vs Labour 28.9% | - | 44.2% |
| Great Eccleston | Labour 34.7%vs Conservative 32.1% | 2023 Conservative 66.7%vs Green 16.9% | - | 42.7% |
| Hambleton & Stalmine | Labour 35.5%vs Conservative 31.0% | 2023 Conservative 61.1%vs Labour 17.3% | - | 41.7% |
| John O'Gaunt | Labour 53.6%vs Conservative 17.5% | 2023 Green 51.5%vs Labour 41.0% | - | 32.8% |
| Marsh | Labour 45.2%vs Green 19.5% | 2023 Green 68.8%vs Labour 22.5% | - | 35.9% |
| Pilling | Labour 32.7%vs Conservative 31.8% | 2023 Conservative 42.9%vs Independent 37.3% | - | 35.7% |
| Preesall | Labour 36.4%vs Conservative 28.7% | 2023 Independent 56.5%vs Conservative 36.5% | - | 41.1% |
| Scale Hall | Labour 51.3%vs Conservative 20.8% | 2023 Labour 69.5%vs Green 16.2% | - | 23.5% |
| Scotforth East | Labour 50.3%vs Conservative 24.7% | 2023 Labour 41.9%vs Green 36.9% | - | 42.9% |
| Scotforth West | Labour 47.6%vs Conservative 20.3% | 2023 Green 63.7%vs Labour 23.0% | - | 43.6% |
| Skerton | Labour 54.7%vs Conservative 16.9% | 2023 Labour 60.1%vs Green 22.6% | - | 23.9% |
| University | Labour 56.3%vs Conservative 20.9% | 2023 Labour 40.6%vs Green 40.4% | - | 13.2% |
| Wyresdale | Labour 38.1%vs Conservative 28.7% | 2023 Labour 59.0%vs Conservative 41.0% | - | 35.7% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Lancaster and Wyre at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Lancaster and Wyre at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con gain from Lab | Eric Ollerenshaw Lancaster and Fleetwood MP | 35.3% | 36.1% | 19.1% | 333 | 63.4% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab gain from Con | Catherine Smith Lancaster and Fleetwood MP | 42.3% | 39.2% | 3.3% | 1,265 | 67.4%+4.0 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | Cat Smith Lancaster and Fleetwood MP | 55.1% | 40.6% | 2.5% | 6,661 | 68.5%+1.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Ben Wallace Wyre and Preston North MP, pre-review boundary | 41.9% | 48.0% | 3.9% | 3,012 | 65.8% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Cat Smith | 44.9% | 23.4% | 3.6% | 9,253 | 57.5%-8.3 |
Lancaster and Wyre was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Lancaster and Fleetwood (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Lancaster and Wyre
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Lancaster and Wyre. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Social rent11.4 / 11.5vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied67.2 / 70.0vs 61.9
- ↓Employed51.1 / 51.1vs 57.3
- ↑Under 3536.0 / 39.5vs 30.2
- ↓Social rent11.4 / 14.2vs 16.8
- ↓Employed51.1 / 54.9vs 57.3
- ↓Employed51.1 / 48.6vs 57.3
- ↑Under 3536.0 / 38.2vs 30.2
- ↓Social rent11.4 / 14.1vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied67.2 / 68.9vs 61.9
- ↓Employed51.1 / 54.1vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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